How UAE bet on US and Israel - And Lost

 How UAE bet on US and Israel - and lost

Thanks to Dolores Peers for sharing.

Iran has expanded its Strait of Hormuz blockade to target the Emirati ports of Khor Fakkan and Fujairah. The latter was attacked on Monday, largely due to the ongoing presence of US and Israeli troops and dual-use goods at the facility.

Why this blockade is a game-changer:

Khor Fakkan is one of major deep-water container ports. When the UAE’s key Gulf mega port, namely Jebel Ali in Dubai, become inaccessible due to conflict in the Strait, Khor Fakkan is the last viable option for essential food and medicine imports.

Both of these ports house massive tank farms with a capacity of roughly 70 million barrels, acting as a critical energy buffer for Gulf monarchies and global markets alike.

The UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline (ADCOP) can pump up to 1.8 million barrels of oil per day directly to Fujairah. Blocking these ports renders that strategic advantage useless.

The blockade effectively halts not just oil exports but all maritime logistics for the UAE. No functioning alternate ports on its territory remain.

Why is this happening right now?

The UAE is the only Gulf monarchy that hasn’t publicly blamed Trump for starting the war, nor has it seriously engaged with Iran. Its withdrawal from OPEC signals a break with regional monarchies and a risky bet on the US, right in the middle of a conflict Washington itself unleashed.

Cooperation with Israel has also escalated dramatically. Israeli media report the Iron Dome system was secretly deployed in the UAE at the start of the aggression against Iran, along with Israeli troops maintaining it in real time. The Israeli Air Force also struck Iranian missile launchers in southern Iran before they could fire on the UAE. Nevertheless, the Emirates has not officially commented on this information, keeping silent.

 

Thus, the UAE trapped itself: refused to scale back ties with the US and Israel, strained relations with fellow Gulf monarchies, and failed (or refused) to fully negotiate with Iran. 

So the strategic fallout was swift and immediate. - @geopolitics_prime