Republished from the UK Socialist website Left Horizons
From La Riposte
On July 15, during his speech soberly called “the moment of truth“, François Bayrou, French Prime Minister, presented his plan to restore public finances. It is nothing less than a set of measures, each more reactionary than the last: a blank year in 2026, i.e. a freeze on social benefits, pensions, unemployment benefits, a freeze on civil servants’ salaries, the elimination of two public holidays, one in three retirements not replaced in the civil service with the aim of eliminating 3000 jobs, reduction in funding for local authorities and reduction in the coverage of drugs for long-term illnesses. Bayrou hopes to save nearly €44bn through these budget cuts.
The first effect of these measures will be to considerably degrade public services. Working conditions for hospital staff will be even worse, with fewer and fewer staff and, consequently, a decrease in the quality of care. The same will be true in schools.
The vast majority of these measures are a frontal attack on the workers and youth who benefit from these public services. To give the illusion that “the effort is shared”, Bayrou will ask for a “solidarity contribution” from the “wealthiest” households. He also mentioned savings to be made on high incomes, tax evaders, tax loopholes for billionaires and tax optimisation for the wealthy, but all this without announcing anything concrete, whereas for the rest of the plan, the measures are well detailed and quantified. These last words are only a consolation prize that masks emptiness.
Bayrou responds to the imperative of capitalism
And for good reason: Bayrou responds to an imperative, that of capitalist interests. In his speech, he placed a strong priority on the competitiveness of French companies. French capitalism has been in decline for many years, outpaced and overtaken by its economic competitors in Europe and the world.
The objective of making French companies more competitive is a vital necessity in order to, on the one hand, avoid being crushed by the competition and, on the other hand, so that billionaires such as Bernard Arnaud and his ilk continue to amass ever more profits.
If Bayrou wanted to make savings, he could very well have done so in terms of government aid to companies, which amounts to €210bn a year, whereas shortly before Bayrou’s speech, INSEE (the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) published a report that shows in detail an increase in the number of people living below the poverty line. This is a demonstration that Bayrou is only a lackey of capital, a servant of the capitalist class.
In his speech, Bayrou devoted long minutes to raising the spectre of debt: “For 50 years, all governments combined, the budget has been in deficit“, “there is more expenditure than revenue”, etc. In lecturing, he presented himself as the one who manages his budget as a good father.
It is true that the debt has never stopped growing and now stands at €345.8bn, or 114% of GDP. The argument often put forward is that if the state does not control its finances and lets its debt slide, interest rates could soar and consequently considerably increase the cost of borrowing.
This is what happened at the end of 2024 with political instability and the downgrading of France’s rating by the rating agency Moody’s (see our article on the subject here). However, it should be noted that France’s borrowing is done on the financial markets and is subject to speculation (up and down). In other words, the borrowing rate of the debt is suspended by the law of the market and the actions of speculators who brandish the threat of soaring rates, or even the refusal to lend.
Tsipras in Greece was forced by international capital to retreat
On this point, we can only agree with Bayrou, when he re-explains how, in Greece, Alexis Tsipras “had to” capitulate only a few days after his election in the face of the threat of the troika (ECB, European Commission and IMF) and the heads of government of the time, François Hollande of France and Angela Merkel of Germany in the first place, as well as the speculative capitalists brandishing the same threat.
Tsipras’s social reform programme turned into a draconian austerity plan: a 15% cut in civil servants’ salaries, a 30% cut in retirement pensions, to name but a few examples (see our article here). Such are the mechanics of the capitalist system, which obeys its own laws.
This is an important lesson that we must keep in mind. The capitalist class will put up a fierce resistance against any attempt at reforms of social progress. As long as it retains economic and political power, it will have the means to defeat reformist governments. It is no coincidence that Bayrou cited this example. It should be taken as a warning.
Of these cuts and restrictions of Bayrou, only the military budget is increased. From the outset, he announced an increase of €3.5bn in 2026 and 2027, which is in addition to the military programming law. To justify this increase, Bayrou brandished the threat of war that weighs on France. With these words, “we will not sell out our security imperative“, he is trying to instil fear and prepare us for war against an unknown enemy.
If France wages a war, it will be above all with the aim of defending French capitalist interests. By this means, political leaders worked to strengthen power and economic dominance for the benefit of French capitalists against their rivals. The appeal to patriotism and national unity by evoking a foreign enemy is a classic of the representatives of the capitalist class. They will try by all means to put the workers behind the banner of capitalist interests while at the same time they will suffer austerity and deprivation and thereby to make austerity accepted as a necessary evil.
The arms industry is rubbing its hands together because the increase in military budgets will result in additional orders. Shareholders will see dividends and stock yields increase when they are already at record levels. We will have to endure austerity, the degradation of our public services with fewer resources for hospitals and schools so that a handful of capitalists will enrich themselves and take us to the horrors of war.
Two obstacles are likely to stand in the way of the austerity “program” of the capitalist class. Barely unveiled by Bayrou, it is already unpopular. It is possible that, in the face of hostile public opinion, the 2026 budget will not be adopted. Bayrou would then be forced to resort to the constitutionarl clause 49.3, which would offer the possibility for deputies to bring down this government by a motion of censure in the National Assembly.
Most opposition parties would support a censure motion
The whole of the left and the Rassemblement Nationale (RN), the party of far right Marine Le Pen, would support such a motion, as was the case in 2024. Although it is easy to predict the position of the French Communist Party (PCF), and the left party, La France Insourmise (LFI) which will probably take the initiative, it is less clear predicting the stand of the Socialist Party, (PS).
The latter let themselves be fooled, consciously or unconsciously, by Bayrou during the last motion of censure in the Assembly, in exchange for restarting the pension reform, which ended in total failure. Bayrou will try the same maneuvre by opening discussions and reaching out to the PS, among others.
The second possible obstacle, and perhaps the most decisive, is the reaction of workers and youth. Thse social counter-reforms, considered as such in the eyes of all, despite all the sleight of hand to make people swallow the pill (threat of war, debt crisis), could be the starting point of a massive mobilization.
But this will depend on the attitude of the union leaderships, first and foremost the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), which will have the task of preparing the unions and the workers by giving concrete objectives and directives for the struggle.
The fight against this government must take the form of an extra-parliamentary movement to inflict a stinging defeat on this government and thus restore workers’ confidence in their ability to fight and in the possibility of victories. This would be a first step towards the revolutionary overthrow of reactionary governments and the capitalist edifice of which they are the political representatives.
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