Thursday, October 15, 2026

Is Israel Itself a Crime Against Humanity? *


Theo Horesh

No genocide in modern history has been preceded by such a lengthy period of crimes against humanity committed against the victim population as in Gaza. No genocide in modern history has commanded such a high level of support among the perpetrator population, which saw 96 percent of Israeli Jews backing the opening, most murderous stage of the genocide. No genocide in human history has been so carefully documented and closely observed in real time as Gaza. And no state since Napoleonic France has stolen substantial tracts of land from each of their contiguous land based neighbors except Israel.

 

Each of these facts can be quickly demonstrated, and together they show that Israel’s persecution of Palestinians, along with its territorial expansion, is integral to its national identity; that support for its atrocities exists among a transgenerational, near consensus of Israeli Jews; that Israel virtually stands alone in possessing a historical national identity so profoundly shaped by its crimes against humanity; and that little is likely to change with the country short of severe isolation under a regime of sanctions and the complete dismantlement of the state.

 

The idea of forming a Jewish state on Palestinian land virtually necessitated that Israel assume such an identity from the start. It was certainly present among Zionists as early as 1891, six years before Theodore Herzl held the conference calling for a Jewish state in Palestine, when the spiritual Zionist Ahad Ha’am expressed his disgust with the cruelty of Jewish settlers, who frequently beat native Palestinians. And it was routinely commented upon by curious Jews who travelled to Palestine in the twenties and thirties.

 

Thus, it might be said without exaggeration, and only the slightest rhetorical flourish, that Israel itself is a crime against humanity.

 

The fact that the genocide in Gaza has been both the most closely observed genocide in history and the most strongly supported by the population of perpetrators in modern history raises the biggest red flags. The highest level of support for a genocide that has been sustained by a modern perpetrator population was arguably in Rwanda, a savage affair that saw 800,000 people hacked to death with machetes by ethnic Hutus. But it was only a few percent of the Hutu population that participated in the killings. A significant portion of them resisted and were killed. And political alignments preceding the genocide suggest that support could not have exceeded 70 percent, while countless people likely found the killings too gruesome to support once they got started.

 

And who on earth would not jump at the chance to dismantle Hutu Power if they ever attained office again?

 

Perhaps the longest period of severe persecution experienced by the victims of a genocide prior the extermination event was that of the Rohingya, who saw 35 years of total marginalization and disenfranchisement in Burma before the genocide of 2017. But with their ethnic cleansing beginning in 1947, Palestinians saw twice this period of continual crimes against humanity before Israel sought to exterminate a large portion of them. And what they experienced over this period of time was arguably far worse than the Rohingya. Indeed, the Nakba of 1947 alone was almost an exact template for the Rohingya Genocide, with the number of people who were ethnically cleansed being almost exactly the same.

 

So, it is not as if Israelis have been whipped up into a frenzy for the genocide. They were like this when all of the main Zionist organizations still had Palestine in their names in the early twentieth century as well.

 

Several states compete for the claim of having stolen territory from each of their land based neighbors. Nazi Germany stole land from every neighbor except Switzerland, Stalinist Russia every neighbor except Norway. Fascist Japan stole land from every state in the near vicinity of their island nation. But they didn’t steal land from all their contiguous neighbors. They didn't steal land over and over again for generations. And they are exceptions that prove the rule. Given the opportunity, few would oppose dismantling these states if they appeared again.

 

The case against Israel only grows when we look to their global support for genocide. Israel has armed, trained, provided intelligence to, and/or directly participated in what reputable scholars have classed as genocides in Indonesia in 1965, East Timor in 1975, El Salvador in the late seventies, Lebanon in 1982, Guatemala in the early eighties, Bosnia in 1993, Rwanda in 1994, Burma in 2017, Tigray in 2022, Yemen in 2024, and, of course, Gaza. Just Google them one by one—the sources are clear.

 

Barring the native genocides of the early modern period, the only near competitors that committed this many genocides are Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s Russia—along with the United States, whose military footprint is so extensive that its support for genocide often seems to occur in the midst of a dream, and besides which served as a virtual partner to Israel in most of these campaigns. 

 

And now, after having attacked eight nations, stolen huge tracts of land from three, committed ethnic cleansing against two, and perpetrated genocide against one in just the last three years, Israel is in its most aggressive phase yet. Little surprise that polling shows them to be the most hated nation in the world, and protests against them suggest the most detested in generations.

 

Netanyahu may be an unusually capable sociopath, but Israel has been at this for generations, and there is a reason they would elect such a person no less than six times. Netanyahu is a reflection of the population that keeps electing him, and in the off years when he wasn’t elected, they have largely elected people who spent most of their careers to his right, like Ariel Sharon and Naftali Bennett.

 

In this way, more than any other nation in the world today, and more than any other state in the modern era, not simply the ruling regime, but Israel itself is the pariah. The very idea of the nation is the crime. Not only is Zionism racism; it always implied ethnic cleansing. And no state is so deserving of dismantlement. Raising the issue is far from radical; states that commit multiple crimes against humanity are routinely dismantled—see Hitler’s Germany, Fascist Japan, the Khmer Rouge, Milosevic’s Yugoslavia, and Apartheid South Africa.

 

Given that Israel has taken aim at almost every single protective feature of the international order, from peacekeeping to humanitarian aid, international law to human rights, the case becomes overwhelming. Through these attacks, Israel is a threat to all of humanity, alive and yet to be born. And the attacks are integral to the conception of the nation; since the very idea of Israel is rooted in crimes against humanity, Israelis have long seen their survival as dependent on erasing international law and their nation as at war with the United Nations.

 

Now, Israel appears to see their survival as dependent on keeping the whole of the world in terror. The fact that there is literally no place on earth where you can be assured that your serious criticisms of Israel will not sooner or later result in your harm, either through political persecution or the suffering of your career, as governments come and go, and Israel extends its attacks on free speech across the internet, while extending its stranglehold over the global tech industry, only strengthens the case against Israel.

 

The facts place Israel in a category with Stalin’s Russia and Hitler’s Germany, however much any one of us may wish to deny it. But to forcefully declare it virtually anywhere in the world today is to put yourself at risk. And unlike these monstrosities of the past, Israel commands significant support from the most powerful state in history, the largest military coalition in history, and the most powerful business leaders of the most globalized economy in history.

 

In this way, Israel is the knife’s edge of an increasingly genocidal world order, and the only thing keeping them from cutting us to pieces is your vigilant commitment to humanity.

 

Theo Horesh, author of The Holocausts We All Deny: The Crisis Before the Fascist Storm


I added the title to this piece by Theo Horesh. But he raises it in the text.

Solidarity With Palestinian Trade Unions.

Palestinian trade unions renew their solidarity with workers around the world who are resisting all forms of oppression and persecution, and call for global action to end all forms of complicity in Israeli crimes, starting from Friday, November 20, and continuing until the "International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People," which falls on Sunday, November 29, 2026

This coming November, we undersigned Palestinian trade unions and federations urgently renew our call to unions around the world to:

  • Uphold and defend the inalienable rights of the Indigenous people of Palestine as stipulated in international law, particularly the right of our refugees to return home and receive reparations, and
  • Escalate BDS pressure to end all state, corporate and institutional complicity in Israel's illegal occupation, apartheid and genocide.

While approaching the third anniversary of the beginning of Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza and the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, and in light of Israel's accelerating ethnic cleansing, annexation, settler violence and pogroms in the West Bank, anddepraved violent repression of our prisoners , we remind ourselves that an injury to one is an injury to all. Israel's livestreamed genocide, coupled with the wars and threats of aggression by its imperialist partners in Washington, is leading to the collapse of respect for international law, human rights and workers' rights, threatening humanity at large, not just Palestinians. 

Today, the Palestinian struggle for justice is at the heart of the battle against a world order of “might makes right” that is being imposed by the US-Israel genocidal axis and enabled by colonial powers. As Israel's wars of aggression against the peoples of the region expand from Lebanon to Syria and from Yemen to Iran, and as the US threatens the peoples of Cuba, Greenland, Venezuela , Oman, among others, it is clear that hardly anyone is safe from this descent to the abyss. 

The Israel-US axis is waging its war for Greater Israel without any consideration for the global recession (maybe even depression) it is potentially creating and its impacts globally. This includes the exacerbation of the cost of living crisis, austerity measures, the housing crisis, food insecurity, among others. Military budgets are swelling at the cost of health, housing and education. The first to feel the brunt of all this are working people and their families. The demands for affordability, fair wages, more and better social services, and lower living costs are organically connected to the calls for an end to astronomical military spending, vicious privatization, and global complicity in Israeli crimes. This affects us all and therefore should unite us all. Where states fail to uphold international law and end their own complicity, workers and their unions must take the lead in acting to end this complicity! 

Our struggle for justice in Palestine is inseparable from the global struggle against systemic racism, exploitation, climate devastation and all forms of oppression.

It is the duty of unions to ensure that the workers they represent—whether in ports, on ships, in businesses, or in government offices—are not involved, often without their knowledge and/or consent, in actions that involve complicity in atrocity crimes anywhere, including Israel's war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide against our people.

The 2024 decisions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – that Israel is plausibly committing genocide , that its occupation is illegal, and its policies amount to apartheid – make ending all complicity in Israel’s crimes not only a moral but also a legal obligation. States, institutions (including unions) and corporations must impose targeted, lawful sanctions on Israel. We call on all union bodies and civil society organizations worldwide to organize, uplift and turn solidarity into concrete strategic action across the ten days leading up to the international day of solidarity with the Palestinian people from November 20th to November 29th 2026.

We, the undersigned Palestinian trade unions, call on workers and unions around the world to escalate their support for our liberation struggle by:

  • Organizing, joining and amplifying global peaceful actions to mark the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People from Friday 20th to Sunday 29th November.
  • Adopting ethical procurement policies ( EPP ) and, where applicable, ethical investment policies ( EIP ) that exclude corporations implicated in grave human rights violations anywhere, including in Palestine.
  • Pressuring corporations and institutions they work in to end any complicity through ending contracts that directly or indirectly support Israel's atrocity crimes, and adopting EPP and/or EIP.
  • Rejecting any racist agreement with Israel that facilitates the substitution and further oppression of Palestinian workers.
  • Escalating economic, academic, cultural, and sports BDS campaigns .
  • Peacefully disrupting and blocking the transfer of military, energy and other dual-use supplies to Israel, by:
      * Participating in actions to identify and stop the illegal transfer by sea, land or air, including by pressing states to enforce international obligations in relation to such shipments, and by pressing complicit corporate actors. 
      * Refusing to handle Israeli or Israeli-bound military supplies, energy and other dual-use cargo.
  • Pressuring your governments to uphold their legal obligations following the ICJ rulings of 2024, as stated by UN human rights experts , by, at a minimum, imposing “a full arms embargo on Israel, halting all agreements, imports, exports and transfers, including of dual-use items that could be used against the Palestinian population under occupation,” as well as canceling or suspending “economic relationships, trade and academic agreements relations with Israel that may contribute to its presence and apartheid arms in the occupied Palestinian regime.” territory.”
  • Cutting all ties with Israel's colonial Histadrut federation and expelling it and all similarly complicit Israeli unions and associations (academic, medical, etc.) from all international fora. 
  • Declaring your union an Apartheid-Free Zone (AFZ) to end corporate and institutional complicity with systems of oppression, particularly Israel's regime of apartheid and genocide against the Palestinian people.

Signatories:  

  • Palestinian Federation of Trade Unions (PFTU)
  • General Union of Palestinian Workers (GUPW)
  • Palestinian Postal workers union -PPSWU
  • Federation of Independent Trade Unions
  • The Palestinian New Federation of Trade Unions 
  • Communication it and postal workers coalition -CWU PS
  • General Union of Palestinian Women
  • General Union of Palestinian Teachers “GUPT”
  • Association of Employees of the Financial Sector - Palestine
  • Health Services Employees' Union
  • Union of Workers in Kindergartens and Private Schools
  • Union of Workers in Local Authorities 
  • Palestinian Electricians Union 
  • Southern Electricity Company Employees Union
  • Palestinian Painters and Plasterers Association
  • Union of the Southern Local Authorities

 

Trump Cancels the Public Execution of Nidal Hasan.



Nidal Hasan in his military uniform 


Mary Sculley

In November 2009, Dr. Nidal Malik Hasan (born September 1970), a psychiatrist in the US military, walked into a facility at Fort Hood in Texas and shot down 13 fellow soldiers along with injuring 32 others. There is no possible justification for Hasan's decision to massacre fellow soldiers to protest his scheduled deployment to Afghanistan, his opposition to the wars against Iraq and Afghanistan, and his opposition to the Islamophobic 'war on terror'.
Hasan was a Palestinian-American whose parents moved to the US in the 1950s most likely as refugees in the Nakba. He was a practicing Muslim and complained of discrimination against him in the military due to his religion. His opposition to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was reportedly rooted in his opposition to the tsunamic tide of Islamophobia so pervasive after the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and to his counseling veterans describing the horrors of what they saw and what they did in Iraq and Afghanistan. One can understand his distress at the slaughter and demonization of Muslims but one cannot justify him taking an antisocial political approach to protest especially when there was at that time an active antiwar movement in this country and around the world.
The court martial of Hasan was something of a circus sideshow, not made better by his legal antics (like defending himself), but he probably felt nothing but contempt for the military officers putting him on trial for mass murder when they were bombing and mass slaughtering Afghans and Iraqis. His contempt for the US military was absolutely justified. His decision to massacre soldiers on a military base was a criminal act for which he should have been prosecuted.
Earlier this month, the Orange Thing announced that Hasan would be executed in early December by a military firing squad. Firing squads are used in several countries, including the US, but it is an indisputably barbaric practice. The US Secretary of War Hegseth later announced that the execution would be livestreamed so that the world could watch it. What kind of barbarism is that?! Today, as a result of massive opposition, the Orange Thing announced that the execution by firing squad would not be livestreamed but it would remain a spectator sport for military personnel and the family members of those killed in November 2009.
We have come to expect the very lowest and most fascistic behavior from this administration. But it must be pointed out that the primary reason Hasan's execution is being turned into family entertainment is because he is a Palestinian Arab and a Muslim. It fits right into the 'war on terror' crap, the white supremacy gestalt of the US government, and into justifying the genocide against the Palestinian people.
We do not in any way find just cause for Hasan's mass murder spree. But it must be said that few US soldiers engaged in thousands of monstrous war crimes against Afghans and Iraqis have ever sustained any legal or criminal consequences as a result.
Hasan lost his way politically and personally. If you want to effect change, if you want to make this world suitable for human beings to live and love in, you do not operate with the same barbaric methods as the oppressors (like mass murder) but by an ethos rooted in love and respect for humanity.
We do not call for Hasan's release but rather for an end to the death penalty, for the outlawing of firing squads, and for the prosecution of all those military and political leaders responsible for the wars against Iraqis, Afghans, Iranians, and for the genocide of Palestinians.


Worried about Russian meddling in UK politics? Wait till you see what Israel is up to

Worried about Russian meddling in UK politics? Wait till you see what Israel is up to

Andy Burnham’s government is rolling out a new “Centre for Information Defence”. But the outside actors most aggressively undermining what little remains of British democracy are nowhere in its sights

Johnathan Cook
Oct 15th 2026

Russia “interfered” in the 2016 Brexit vote by running some “anti-EU” articles on its RT channel and promoting a few internet trolls. Even MI5 has to admit that this activity had no tangible impact on the referendum campaign. 

No matter. British prime minister Andy Burnham has once again revived the incendiary claim that Russian disinformation is an especial threat to British democracy. At the United Nations a few weeks ago he announced plans for a National Centre for Information Defence “to detect, attribute and disrupt these kinds of hostile state information attacks”.

For the new British prime minister, as for his predecessors, this is all about Moscow and the UK’s favourite bogeyman, Vladimir Putin. At the UN, Burnham promised British expertise to other European nations to protect them from Kremlin disinformation.

Meanwhile, evidence continues to mount that another foreign actor is meddling even more aggressively in British politics – and neither Burnham nor MI5 have a word to say about it.

Any evidence of Russia disinformation-peddling in the UK pales in comparison to Israeli influence operations – and that’s just the ones we know about. The head of MI5, Ken McCallum, noted that Russian disinformation was neither sophisticated nor successful. The same cannot be said for Israel’s handiwork.

Israel has been using “hasbara” trolls on social media platforms to manipulate public debates in Britain for years – the thrust of the accusation against Russia. But in Israel’s case, it goes much further than that. 

This year the Israeli state massively increased its public diplomacy budget to $730 million to expand its influence operations. That includes flying even more politicians, clergy, academics and influencers to bombard them with pro-Israel propaganda they are then likely to spread back home. According to foreign minister Gideon Saar, Israeli advocacy should be treated “like investing in jets, bombs, and missile interceptors”. 

There was already plenty of evidence through the late 2010s, as I reported at the time, that Israel was helping to organise, stoke and amplify a campaign to smear its arch-critic Jeremy Corbyn as an antisemite, in order to prevent him from reaching No 10 Downing Street. 

Not least, Israel did so by advancing a new, bogus definition of Jew hatred, through the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). Usefully, for Israel, that definition largely ignores hatred of Jews to focus instead on criticism of Israel. 

That was the most blatant meddling possible in what remains of Britain’s democratic processes. UK politicians and media not only failed to oppose it, but actively sought to amplify the smears. 

Civil war

This week the fanatically pro-Israel US lobby group the Anti-Defamation League revealed that it had been working with leading AI firms, which are increasingly being integrated into social media platforms, to suppress what it calls “antisemitism” – or what the rest of us would refer to as criticism of Israel.

CEO Jonathan Greenblatt observed: "We've had excellent collaboration with Silicon Valley." The platforms, he said, would tackle content the ADL doesn't like “right in the source code” – that is, before users can see it. 

That is likely not only to remove criticism of Israeli atrocities and criticism of western governments, such as the UK’s, for colluding in Israel’s genocide but turn social media into a playground for bots and Israel apologists, giving them free reign to spread their propaganda without challenge. 

We also know, thanks to the work of the French security services – maybe MI5 was too busy chasing Russian bots to notice – that an Israeli cyber agency called Blackcore targeted the SNP in May’s Scottish elections, as well as meddling in elections in France and New York. 

Israeli tech firms, especially those dealing in spyware, intelligence and influence operations, are typically closely aligned with the Israeli state and its military. Most of the founders of tech start-ups are alumnae of the Israeli army’s 8200 intelligence unit. 

Alongside the SNP, New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani and a leftwing French party headed by Jean-Luc Melenchon were targeted. Why? Because, unlike their political rivals, all had dared to speak out against Israel’s genocide in Gaza. 

With echoes of what happened to Corbyn, Blackcore’s campaigns were designed to smear candidates. In the case of the French elections, fake accounts were created to accuse one candidate of rape and another of paedophilia. 

A new documentary, NAZA, shows how Israel has paved the way in using AI in pioneering new ways to kill on a mass scale in Gaza. It selects banks of targets for assassination, often by murdering those “suspects” when they are in family compounds, slaughtering large numbers of bystanders in the process. 

It is therefore hardly surprising that tech firms in Israel have been caught using AI in similarly innovative and indiscriminate ways online, to target western publics with disinformation. 

In the summer it emerged that the Israeli government had created a website for a fake “scholarly” think-tank. In a short period of time, it produced prodigious quantities of AI-generated content on Israel, optimised for common search terms, that promoted Israeli talking points and constantly suggested criticism of Israel risked fuelling antisemitism. 

It was set up was not only to influence internet chatbots into echoing its pro-Israel disinformation but also to integrate its content into what experts call the “underlying training data”: that is, the unquestioned assumptions on which chatbots operate. 

Back in May 2024 Meta identified fake Israel-based accounts, “posing as Jewish students, African Americans and other concerned citizens”, peddlingpro-Israel content in the US and Canada in support of Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. 

Two months ago, Meta again found the same kind of dirty tricks emanating from Israel, this time targeting Britain, France and Australia among other countries. The AI-generated accounts posed “as local, civically-engaged brands, news sources, religious organizations, and political activists”.

Notably in the case of the UK and France, the influence campaigns were designed to stoke “anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim” sentiment. Israel has been critically involved in advancing Islamophobic content, fuelling fears of a supposed “Muslim takeover” of Europe to mobilise support for Israel as a bulwark in the Middle East against Islam, and thereby encourage sympathy for its genocidal attacks on Gaza. 

As a consequence, the political landscape in Britain has been disfigured. Support for the far-right has been artificially inflated, polarising British society. The path is being paved towards deeper authoritarianism and the possibility of civil war. 

Death knell

None of these dire outcomes, the death knell for what little remains of British democracy, is attracting even the mildest interest from the Burnham government or MI5. Instead, they are chasing what so far appears to have been far more marginal Russian output. 

But it isn’t just the influence of Israel we should be worried about. The problem runs much deeper, with a host of other noxious outside actors trying to warp and disfigure British politics in ways that closely accord with Israel’s malign intent. Burnham’s Centre for Information Defence will do precisely nothing to tackle any of it. 

Here are two other powerful external actors aligned with Israel in distorting British politics.

The billionaire class, a transnational elite that has no loyalty to Britain, interfere in our politics by making our political parties dependent on their donations. They use their money to buy influence with the main parties – which is why for decades it has made little difference whether we vote for the Conservatives or Labour. We get austerity either way, while the billionaires get permission for their forever wars, directing public wealth away from public services into the arms industries and resource grabs. 

Jeremy Corbyn tried to break with this model by funding Labour with small donations from ordinary people instead of the billionaires. As a result, he was destroyed by a confected campaign run by the billionaires, in association with Israel and its trolls, to smear him as an antisemite. 

Keir Starmer, Corbyn’s successor, went right back to begging for moneyfrom Big Business, got the billionaires behind him, and rolled on with the austerity programme.

Is Nigel Farage’s Reform different? Of course, not. Even before reaching power, he’s dependent on crypto-billionaires living in Thailand and Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, the sometime US trillionaire Elon Musk is busy rallying Britain’s new blackshirts, led by serial fraudster Tommy Robinson, to chase after a few “illegal” migrants rather than identifying the real criminals tearing apart Britain: the super-rich like Musk.

The billionaires both wield and conceal their influence through their ownership of the corporate media. They use the media to aggressively promote their own causes – political and economic policies ensuring their further enrichment – by normalising the extreme ideology of neoliberal capitalism, with its promotion of endless resource extraction through forever wars and the fuelling of needless consumption. 

The consequence is the destruction of the conditions for human life on the planet. The billionaires hope they can ride out the catastrophe in their bunkers, or cryogenically freeze their bodies until a point in the future when they can be uploaded to the cloud. 

One of the media’s most important jobs is to use smear campaigns to destroy anyone, such as Corbyn and now Zack Polanski, who threatens the billionaires’ privileged position by offering a mildly socialist programme of wealth redistribution.

Vassal state

If the UK media wasn't entirely captured by the billionaire class – serving as its PR division – then we might know more about the role of the United States in meddling in our politics. 

The recent claims of a supposed “terrorist plot” outside RAF Fairford – really a US airforce base pretending to be a British base and one from which the US has waged an illegal war of aggression against Iran – should have reminded us that the Pentagon is largely in charge of UK foreign policy. 

The US has some 15 major military bases on British soil, plus half a dozen smaller intelligence sites. As the rightwing US podcaster Tucker Carlson recently observed, the fact that Britain has foreign troops crawling all over it makes us little more than an occupied “vassal state”. 

The US recently announced a $4 billion upgrade of its UK bases, including establishing storage sites for its nuclear arsenal. The plan caused barely a ripple of interest among British politicians or the media . 

Although our political and media class pretend the UK is an equal partner in a western defence alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the reality is very different. Nato takes its orders from the US, doing Washington’s bidding. That’s why Nato has been pivoting towards Washington’s economic rival China, which is, of course, nowhere near the North Atlantic. 

When the US snaps its fingers, Britain stands to attention and hikes its spending on the war industries. Along with European governments, the UK is willing to drain its national coffers and scythe through public spending with yet more austerity cuts to support Washington’s military agenda for “full-spectrum global dominance”.

Hidden influence

Much of the US influence on British politics is carefully concealed from view, operating behind closed doors. 

In the early 2010s, the US was desperately seeking a pretext to extradite Julian Assange from the UK and lock him up in a super-max jail, hiding him out of sight after his organisation Wikileaks revealed US and British war crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq. It was during this period that Sir Keir Starmer, as the director of public prosecutions, repeatedly jetted off to Washington for secret meetings with US officials. 

We will never know what was discussed. Freedom of information requests discovered that his own officials destroyed all records of those meetings. 

Once he became a politician, Starmer was recruited to the shadowy Trilateral Commission, originally founded in the 1970s by officials in Jimmy Carter’s administration to deal with the supposed problem of “an excess of democracy” in the US. The commission’s view was that voters were becoming less passive, at that time over the Vietnam war, and ways needed to be found to return them to docility. 

A similar British-American Project cements ties between rising stars in British politics, business and journalism and Washington elites. The power imbalance between the two sides ensures up-and-coming British leaders are readily groomed into an Atlanticist worldview in which the UK is very much the junior partner.

There are a plethora of other “respected’ think-tanks and organisations whose chief role is to embed US policy ideas, especially those relating to foreign policy, in the thinking of British elites. They include the Bilderberg Group, Chatham House, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Atlantic Council, The British-American Parliamentary Group, and BritishAmerican Business. 

The US uses its financial muscle through these organisations and many others to manufacture consent for its extreme neoliberal and neoconservative ideologies. The latest example are massive grants to organisations willing to export Trump’s MAGA ideology to the UK, masquerading as “public education”.

There is plenty of evidence to show that it was pressure from the Trump administration that led to the unprecedented decision by Starmer’s government to proscribe a civil disobedience group, Palestine Action, for the first time in Britain’s history as a terrorist organisation.

Palestine Action had incensed Israel by targeting its weapons factories on UK soil, highlighting another aspect of British collusion in the Gaza genocide, and had infuriated Trump personally by spraying one of his golf courses in Scotland with the words “Gaza is not 4 sale”. 

In truth, the ways that the US meddles directly in British politics are so numerous it is virtually impossible to quantify them. Britain is little more than colony of the US, receiving diktats on important foreign policy issues – especially regarding US and Israeli interests – that the UK is invariably too frightened to oppose. 

Burnham is already rolling over to reverse the UK’s decision to honour a ruling from the International Court of Justice and other international tribunals that Britain has no claim to sovereignty over the Chagos Islands and must return them to Mauritius. The UK has faced a temper tantrum from Trump on the matter because the US operates an illegal military base on one of the islands. 

Disobedience by the UK is the exception, not the rule. Which makes Burnham’s exclusive focus on Russian influence almost laughably beside the point. This furious finger-pointing at the Kremlin is designed with one purpose in mind only: to distract the British public from where the real external meddling in our politics is coming from.

Michael Roberts: Resilient?

Resilient?

Resilient – that is the message of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s latest outlook on the world economy presented at its semi-annual meeting in Bangkok, Thailand. To quote its report: “Global economic activity has proven resilient once again…In less than seven years, the global economy has been subjected to an exceptional sequence of events. The pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to global supply chains; wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, with the consequent sharp increases in the prices of energy and other commodities; and significant changes in trade barriers and trading relations have tested the resilience of households, firms, financial markets, and governments. Individually, each of these major developments would have been considered unlikely. Their confluence over such a short period of time is even more extraordinary.”

“Yet, despite this barrage of shocks, the global economy has held up. Labor markets have remained unexpectedly strong, financial systems have broadly withstood the shocks and the sharpest monetary tightening in almost half a century, and inflation has receded from its peaks in many economies, although it remains persistent in several cases.”  The IMF’s economists reckon global economic growth will be broadly unchanged at 3.1% this year and even rise to 3.4% next year.

The IMF is optimistic because: “first, the rerouting of energy supplies, increased energy production in other countries, inventory drawdowns, substitution to other sources of energy, including renewables, and higher energy efficiency have all helped cushion the impact on energy markets. Without these margins of adjustment, the oil disruption alone would have significantly reduced global growth in 2026.  And second, the artificial intelligence-driven investment boom boosted global activity and supported international trade. Investment has continued to rise in anticipation of higher expected returns and real incomes (reflected in stock valuations).”

So all is well?  Martin Wolf, the liberal pro-capitalist economic guru of the Financial Times, is less sure.  Wolf outlines the reasons for current resilience. “the dominant factors have been the flexibility of the global energy economy and the investment boom triggered by AI.”  However, neither is guaranteed to last. Stocks of crude and products are low after six months of drawdowns. Moreover, “the AI investment boom also concentrates risk. Even if AI itself works out, the level of investment is likely to stop growing, if not decline, at some point. Moreover, AI might not work out financially on the hoped-for scale at all.”

And the IMF tempers its optimism too. “resilience is under strain. Without shoring up supply capacity and replenishing policy buffers, the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience. Dwindling energy inventories could allow geopolitical shocks to transmit even more forcefully to energy prices. Other commodity markets also face risks. Low-income countries and households remain especially vulnerable to higher food prices from transport disruptions, higher fertilizer costs, export restrictions, and extreme weather events.” And as many have pointed out, “Technology-related investment, while an important boon against the energy shock, is concentrating risks – making the global expansion heavily reliant on a small number of firms, sectors, and economies. More generally, resilience has been uneven, varying noticeably with economies’ exposure to the war and the AI boom, and causing divergent outcomes.” So if all should go wrong, “global growth in 2027 would be materially lower than in the baseline projections, with inflation significantly higher.” 

Indeed, the world economy may be ‘resilient’ right now, but it is a resilience within stagnation. Whereas world real GDP growth averaged an annual 4.4% before the Great Recession of 2008-9; in the 2010s, it managed only 3%; and since the 2020 pandemic slump, annual average growth has slowed to 2.7% a year.

Source: World Bank, author’s calculations

In the advanced capitalist economies of the so-called Global North, real GDP growth is well below even that average. This year, according to the IMF, the US economy, even though driven by record levels of investment in AI, will achieve only a 2.3% increase in real GDP (ie after inflation). And that’s the highest rate in the major advanced economies. The eurozone area economies will manage just 1.1%, with France and Italy below even that.  Japan will grow just 0.7% this year; Canada and the UK just above 1%. 

As for the Global South economies, even including China and India, average growth in 2026 will be just 3.7%, down from 4.5% in 2025. The World Bank reckons that the perpheral economies face the weakest per capita income growth since the pandemic. Excluding China and India, relative to advanced economies, per capita income is not expected to return to the pre-pandemic level until after 2028, “implying nearly a decade of lost income convergence.” 

Everywhere, with the exception of China, investment growth in the major economies has been on a declining trend since the 2000s; and the recovery since the pandemic slump has been weaker than that following the global financial crisis.

Source: World Bank

Like night follows day, slowing investment growth leads to falling global productivity growth. Annual productivity growth has dropped from 1.4% (1995–2000) down to roughly 0.4% after the pandemic, with a slight recovery in the last two years, driven by US investment in AI data centres etc. US economic growth has been slowing in the last three years, but would be even slower without AI investment.

Despite expectations, so far, increased productivity growth from the application of AI technology remains absent, at least as measured by total factor productivity (a crude measure of the impact of technological innovation).

Why has investment and productivity growth slowed?  The main reason is the nature of a capitalist economy.  Capitalists only invest more to boost the productivity of their labour force if they think they will realise higher profitability.  Investment is for profit not social need. But the average profitability of capital invested has been falling through the 21st century, only reviving somewhat since the end of the pandemic. Indeed, average profitability is now no higher than the lows of the early 1980s.  No wonder investment growth has slowed and has fallen as a share of GDP over the last few decades.

G7 economies: average (weighted) rate of profit on capital (%)

Source: Penn World Tables 11.0 series, AMECO, author calculation

So the world economy may not have entered a major slump in the 2020s (yet), but its resilience is fragile.

And one new feature of the post-pandemic world economy is that inflation is back. The IMF reckons that global annual inflation will reach 4.7% in 2026 with more to come.  Only this week, the official US inflation rate reached 3.7% and is averaging well above the target set by the US Federal Reserve of 2% a year.

The IMF admits that inflation could accelerate next year if the Iran and Middle East conflicts continue until the end of this year and beyond. The global supply chain is under renewed pressure and international trade growth is dropping back.

Source: New York Fed

The price of diesel in Europe, Africa and Latin America could start rising again, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned this week, adding that there will be a global shortage of the fuel until the middle of next year. Price increases driven by physical supply disruptions have larger and more persistent macroeconomic effects than those driven by geopolitical risks.

The IMF and the World Bank make much of rising global debt. Here they refer only to public sector debt. But public sector debt is only at record highs (relative to GDP) because previous private sector investment crashes (1982, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2020). 

Governments have bailed out banks and  companies ‘too large to fail’ in every slump and have then imposed ‘fiscal austerity’ measures like raising taxes or cutting public investment and services, pensions and welfare benefits because of ‘excessive debt’. That is now the mantra again from the IMF, World Bank, the OECD and governments.

The periods when government debt ratios rocketed (see figure below, blue block) was after crashes in financial and corporate debt. In the periods in between, policies of austerity were applied (particularly cutting welfare benefits and investment in infrastructure), along with some recovery in economic growth, so debt ratios were more or less stable (see figure, orange block).  Cuts in income (particularly for higher income groups) and corporate profits taxes, meant that government tax revenues as share of GDP have remained flat at around 35% of GDP, ensuring a rise in annual deficits.

Government bond yields (ie the interest cost to governments to raise funds for their spending) have risen sharply since the inflation spike of 2022 and the subsequent Middle East conflicts.

Bu the IMF and other agencies never mention the risk to the ‘resilience’ of the world economy from corporate debt. And yet it is the trigger of a financial crash and the devaluation of ‘fictitious capital’ (as Marx called it) that is the real danger. For a bursting of the AI investment bubble is on the agenda.

The collapse of previous investment booms knocked about 1 pp on average of US real GDP growth. In the aftermath of the dot.com bubble, private fixed investment dropped more than 12.7% between 2000 and the end of 2002 as a recession took hold in the US. In the initial year after the bubble burst, tech investments dropped 12%, while fixed investments in general dropped 7.6%.

Gita Gopinath, former chief economist at the IMF, has calculated that an AI stock market crash, equivalent to that which ended the dot-com boom, would erase some $20tn in American household wealth and another $15tn abroad, enough to strangle consumer spending and induce a global recession. Indeed, the optimistic economic report from the IMF was balanced by these very fears in its Global Financial Stability report. The IMF worries that AI firms could fail to deliver earnings commensurate with their lofty valuations. Even a moderate correction in AI stock valuations would reduce global growth by 0.4%. “Combined with lower-than-expected total factor productivity gains, and a more significant correction in equity markets, global output losses could increase further, concentrated in tech-heavy regions such as the United States and Asia.”

The “magnificent seven” big tech stocks – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – account for more than 35% of the S&P 500 share index in the US, up from 12% a decade ago, and their total market capitalisation has increased by more than 50% in the past two years. Yet the IMF warned of “growing evidence” that the successful rollout of AI “may not require investment on the massive scale being undertaken by ‘hyperscaler’ firms,” and that “potential economic gains may not be as large as expected”.Athanasios Vamvakidis, the deputy director of the IMF’s monetary and capital department, said “the exposure of the rest of the world to US assets, particularly AI, is the highest it has ever been. So this is supporting the global economy through wealth effects today; but if we get a market correction it could have broad implications.”

“Weaker or less durable investment and profitability in AI could trigger a correction in AI-related asset prices, exacerbated by rising leverage, concentrated exposures, and circular financing arrangements,” said the IMF report. Such a reassessment would then “sharply reduce investment, trigger equity market corrections, and tighten financial conditions, with global spillovers”.

Already there are signs of nervousness among AI investors.  The US stock market has shown signs of ‘marking time’ after a period of record highs.  With inflation up and with it bond yields reaching new highs, the cost of borrowing is rising – and AI investment is increasingly being financed by more debt. Investors have started to hold back on further purchases of the stock of chipmakers – just before the AI lab company Anthropic launches its public offering of shares in order to raise yet more funds. Meanwhile, Chinese AI companies continue to launch new ‘open-weight’ models that can be used at a fraction of the cost of using the models of the American labs.

“The key concern is increasingly around when the extraordinary AI capex cycle starts to peak,” said Emmanuel Makonga, an equities strategist at Barclays. “Investors are focusing on how much further AI spending can sustain from here,” he said, which was causing a “de-rating of the AI trade”. Resilience may be coming to an end.