Monday, July 20, 2026

Iran War and the Democrats. What Would A real Opposition Party Do?


Richard Mellor
7-20-26


Not every political analyst in the United States is a Trump apologist or another corporate media personality building a career by echoing the conventional wisdom. Professor John Mearsheimer has earned a reputation as one of the country's foremost realist scholars of international relations. Whether one agrees with his conclusions or not, he has consistently presented his views as he sees them, even when doing so has invited intense criticism. That was certainly the case when he co-authored a controversial book examining the influence of the Israel lobby on U.S. foreign policy.


My own view is that his assessment of the events of the past week—including the U.S. bombing of Iranian infrastructure and Trump's renewed threats of annihilation against Iran—is probably a fair one. Mearsheimer analyzes international affairs through the lens of great-power competition and national interests. What he does not offer, however, is a way out of the recurring crises that define relations between the United States and Iran, or the broader conflicts engulfing West Asia.


In my opinion, that limitation reflects the political framework within which he operates. Mearsheimer is ultimately a theorist of the capitalist state. While he can explain how capitalist powers pursue their interests, he cannot offer a solution because no lasting solution exists within capitalism itself. A system driven by competition for markets, resources, strategic advantage and profit cannot resolve crises that are rooted in its own economic and political foundations.


I am no academic or foreign policy specialist. I am simply a worker with opinions formed through experience and observation like most workers. But ordinary working people are just as capable of understanding political realities as many of the experts who dominate television panels or university departments. These institution operate within assumptions that accept capitalism as both natural and permanent. The debate usually concerns how best to manage the system, not whether the system itself is responsible for the crises it continually produces.


That brings us to American politics.


The Democratic Party is presented as the only realistic alternative to Trump and the Republican Party. Much of the liberal political establishment is focused on regaining control of Congress in the coming elections, and movements such as "No Kings" reflect that objective.


Yet it has become increasingly clear that the Democratic Party is not an opposition party in any fundamental sense. It is one of the two major parties of American capitalism. It represents the interests of capital before labor, bosses before workers. Every political party has a class character, and the Democratic Party is no exception.


This helps explain why tens of millions of Americans simply do not vote in national elections. They see little meaningful difference between two parties that compete fiercely for office while agreeing on many of the basic assumptions of American economic and foreign policy. Trump was elected with the support of only a minority of eligible voters, a reflection not simply of his appeal, but of widespread political alienation.


Imagine, however, if the Democratic Party genuinely claimed to represent working people instead of speaking vaguely in the name of "all Americans," placing workers, billionaires, and corporate executives in the same political category. Imagine if it had deep roots in working-class communities, trade unions, and grass root organizations like renters rights groups instead of relying primarily on election campaigns every two or four years.


Such a party could enter office with a clear program of action. On its first day it could pledge to:

  • End the U.S. war against Iran, withdraw military involvement, and acknowledge that the American people were never consulted about another war.
  • Establish a universal, publicly funded Medicare for All health care system.
  • Launch a national affordable housing program.
  • Build a modern, affordable public transportation network.
  • Abolish ICE and dismantle other institutions that terrorize immigrant communities.
  • Invest massively in infrastructure while guaranteeing union wages, benefits, and labor rights.
  • Redirect public investment from fossil fuels toward renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.
  • Bring the 500 largest corporations under democratic public ownership, compensating only those individuals whose retirement security genuinely depends on such investments rather than rewarding billionaire owners.
  • Reduce military spending by at least 50 percent and redirect those resources toward meeting human needs.

None of these proposals should be regarded as extreme. They reflect the priorities of a society organized around human need instead of private profit.


Nor should we hesitate to challenge the enormous concentration of wealth in the hands of the capitalist class, whether through taxation, legislation, or public ownership. Billionaires and big capitalists in general, have never hesitated to close factories, destroy communities, or throw working people into poverty when doing so increased their profits. They also benefit from public resources being devoted to wars and military expansion without the meaningful consent of the people who pay for them. Within seventy miles of where I write there are roughly eighty billionaires, and California alone is home to more than two hundred.


I recognize, of course, that today's Democratic Party has no intention of pursuing such a program. That is precisely the point. Working people need a political party of our own. More importantly, we need a movement grounded in the understanding that capitalism cannot be made genuinely humane or environmentally sustainable. It is not simply a matter of electing better politicians; it is a matter of replacing a system whose priorities inevitably produce inequality, war, and environmental destruction.


I do not claim to have all the answers. No individual does. But I have become convinced that only a democratic socialist federation of nations, cooperating instead of competing, offers humanity a realistic path forward. If we avoid nuclear war, the defining challenge of this century will be the climate crisis. Capitalism has shown itself incapable of addressing that crisis because doing so would require subordinating profit to human need. Unless we move beyond that system, the future will be shaped not by the possibilities of human progress but by the catastrophes capitalism continues to produce.

Iran/US Talks: The Negotiator Who Expected the Room to Explode

A good piece from Bruce Fanger. I am sure I am not alone in often wondering what it has been like for Iranian government officials or negotiators sitting across the negotiating table from US representatives, in this case, two real estate speculators and committed Zionists, knowing that the US and Israel have a policy of assassinating those it engages in talks. This is so-called Western Values in full swing. Bribery, intimidation, coercion, and if that fails, assassination and destruction. 


As far as retreating. It is the US that has the responsibility to retereat from an unprovoked act of aggression that included mur*ering a head of state and numerous government officials.  Richard Mellor.


Abbas Araghchi

The Negotiator Who Expected the Room to Explode 

White Rose

July 20, 2026

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi used an interview with Mehr News Agency on July 19 to describe negotiations with the United States as something conducted under the shadow of assassination, war, and regime change. 

 

His account was not a diplomatic progress report. It was an explanation of why Washington’s usual combination of military threats, economic incentives, and personal pressure had failed to produce an Iranian surrender.

 

Araghchi recalled asking President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, whether he had ever attended a negotiating session while believing the entire meeting could be bombed at any moment. He asked whether Witkoff had ever spoken on the telephone while wondering whether he might be killed before the call ended, or contacted his family fearing it could be their final conversation.

 

“They just stared at me blankly,” Araghchi said, according to English-language reports of the interview.

 

His point was blunt. American negotiators were approaching Iran as though fear alone would eventually force compliance. Araghchi argued that threats lose much of their leverage when directed at officials who already believe they may be killed.

 

“We have experienced these things and we stood our ground,” he said. “You have to talk to us differently. You can’t threaten us, and you can’t bribe us.”

 

Araghchi claimed the United States had offered to build power plants and other infrastructure in exchange for Iranian concessions. He rejected those proposals as attempted bribery rather than ordinary diplomatic bargaining. That characterization is Araghchi’s and has not been independently substantiated by the American government.

 

The central dispute, according to Araghchi, concerned Washington’s demand that Iran accept zero uranium enrichment. He called that demand illegal and unreasonable and said Iran refused to concede it during negotiations. He then accused the United States and Israel of beginning the war after diplomacy failed to deliver the result they wanted.

 

 


 That is Iran’s account of the breakdown, not an uncontested history. American and Israeli officials have consistently presented Iranian enrichment and the broader nuclear program as security threats. Araghchi’s interview was intended to establish the opposite narrative: that negotiations were used to demand capitulation and that military force followed when capitulation was refused.

 

His most striking comparison concerned Venezuela.

 

“This isn’t Venezuela where you take one person and everyone else gets scared and backs down,” Araghchi said.

 

The remark referred to the January American operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to New York. Araghchi was arguing that Iran could not be decapitated in the same manner. Removing one leader, even the most senior leader, would not necessarily cause the Iranian state, military establishment, or clerical system to collapse.

 

That claim is closely connected to another part of Araghchi’s account: Iran had prepared succession and continuity plans before the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iranian officials reportedly had predetermined procedures for replacing senior figures and continuing government operations if the leadership was attacked.

 

Araghchi therefore described two American and Israeli miscalculations. The first was the belief that Iran would accept zero enrichment when confronted with escalating pressure. The second was the belief that a short military campaign and the removal of senior leaders would fracture the state and turn the population against the government.

 

According to Araghchi, neither occurred. He claimed Iran resisted during the earlier twelve-day conflict and that Israel had been unprepared for a prolonged confrontation. He further claimed that the Iranian public did not abandon the state in the manner anticipated by its enemies.

 

Those statements must be treated as claims from a government official during wartime. Iran tightly controls domestic media, suppresses opposition, and has powerful reasons to exaggerate national unity. A population’s refusal to welcome foreign bombardment is also not the same thing as support for the Islamic Republic. Governments frequently confuse the two.

 

Still, the interview reveals something important about the negotiations. Washington appears to have treated fear, isolation, economic reward, and leadership removal as parts of the same pressure campaign. Araghchi’s response was that Iran had already priced death into the negotiation.

 

That does not make Iran invulnerable. It makes coercive diplomacy less predictable.

 

The American assumption seems to have been that sufficient pressure would eventually produce a frightened official prepared to sign whatever was placed before him. Araghchi described the Iranian side as believing that signing under threat would not necessarily save them anyway.

 

Once negotiations reach that condition, infrastructure offers sound like inducements, military warnings sound like confirmation, and compromise begins to resemble preparation for surrender.

 

Araghchi’s interview did not offer a route out of the war. It offered a warning about why the existing route had failed. The United States approached Iran expecting intimidation to create flexibility. Iran interpreted intimidation as proof that Washington wanted submission rather than agreement.

 

Both sides may believe they have demonstrated resolve. What they have actually demonstrated is that neither has yet found a way to retreat without calling it defeat. 

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Yesterday's US-Iran escalation is a mere prelude to what is likely to come

Yesterday's US-Iran escalation is a mere prelude to what is likely to come


Trita Parsi
July 18th

We have seen a major escalation between the US and Iran over the past 24 hours, but it is likely only a prelude to what appears to be coming next week.

Tehran continues to respond tit-for-tat, demonstrating that, contrary to repeated Pentagon assurances, its ability to penetrate American and regional air defenses remains formidable. (Its strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan and Syria have killed at least two Americans.)

Yet because Iran’s responses have been deliberately calibrated to remain proportionate—unlike earlier exchanges, when it pledged to respond at a ratio of 1.5 to one—its full military capacity remains unseen.

Tehran has struck desalination plants in Kuwait in response to American strikes on Iranian desalination plants, and bridges and other infrastructure across the GCC in response to U.S. attacks on Iranian infrastructure. It has not, for example, initiated attacks on Persian Gulf oil facilities without first seeing its own energy infrastructure targeted by the United States.

In doing so, Tehran seeks to signal to GCC states that it is not opening new fronts in the war; Washington is. Its message is that the GCC has placed itself in an untenable position by relying on a country willing to restart the war with Iran even though it knows the GCC—not the United States—will bear the heaviest costs.

That, however, is not how the GCC states are likely to see it. Qatar and Oman in particular, which went to great lengths to prevent this war, are furious with Tehran. While they never accepted that U.S. bases on their soil were legitimate targets, they reject even more forcefully the notion that their critical infrastructure can be bombed simply because Iran cannot strike the United States directly.

Trump, however, appears to have concluded that Tehran’s hard line in the negotiations stemmed from the United States not hitting Iran hard enough during the 38-day war. Seemingly indifferent to the costs for the GCC states, the global economy, inflation and the American cost of living—not to mention the risk to U.S. troops—he is gambling that a few more weeks of war will degrade Iran’s ability to close the Strait and force Tehran into a more accommodating negotiating position.

It is, at best, a perilous gamble. Tehran has grown increasingly convinced that while Trump is unconventional enough to pursue diplomacy with Iran, he lacks the discipline and strategic patience to see negotiations through.

Herein lies the paradox of Trump: his willingness to break with convention makes him open to pursuing peace with Iran—a possibility previous presidents scarcely entertained. Yet that same disregard for convention leads him to dismiss the discipline, protocols and methods that successful diplomacy requires.

Indeed, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement today arguing that Trump’s conduct has proven that “the signature of the U.S. President is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility.”

As long as Washington retains the option of returning to war, some in Tehran argue, negotiations serve little purpose. The United States will always be tempted to improve its bargaining position through military force - if such military options are available.

That view is gaining ground in Tehran. Yet taken to its logical conclusion, it implies that no durable diplomacy is possible until the other side has been militarily exhausted—a mirror image of Trump’s own rationale for returning to war in the first place.

For both sides to embrace this logic is not an adjustment to reality. It is a profound failure of imagination and statecraft.

Friday, July 17, 2026

Speculations Over Ground Campaign into Iran Again Heat Up as US Moves to "Isolate" Coastal Zone

Speculations Over Ground Campaign into Iran Again Heat Up as US Moves to "Isolate" Coastal Zone


Simplicius July 18. 

Trump continues plying his neocon ‘forever war’ against Iran, with no plan or end in sight. Now the latest reports indicate his intention to escalate the strikes onto Iranian civil infrastructure like power plants and beyond in the coming weeks.

The more troubling reports claim that Trump continues to plan for some kind of ground assault. The caveat is that it would likely be for the islands, and not with US troops—or at least, not with US troops leading the charge. 

Trump himself intimated this, hinting that other Gulf nations should supply the ground troops. Listen to 0:25 below: 

“We have other people that would do a ground campaign for us.”

In fact, in the above interview clip Trump reveals several quite telling things.

First, note what he says about not hitting the oil terminals on Kharg island. He says they represent a major chunk of the world economy, which proves what we’ve been saying for months now—that Trump is in some ways trapped because, despite all his bluster, he would be shooting himself in the foot by destroying Iranian oil infrastructure, as it would tank his own economy, as well as the world’s.

But the more strategically revealing tidbit was his statement that: “If we degrade them far enough and deep enough back, I would [take Kharg island].”

Here he clearly admits two things: 

  1. The US currently does not have the capability to take Kharg island because it is too dangerous. Iranian capabilities are still present which would wreak havoc and casualties on US troops. 

  2. Trump’s plan appears to be to bombard the coastal region for a long time in order to degrade Iran’s strike capabilities such that they are pushed back “deep enough” so as to allow a safe enough corridor for troops to somehow land on Kharg island. 

Trump’s “ideal” holy grail is obviously to seize Iran’s oil facilities on Kharg island and thus steal the oil—which would be a true coup de grace for Trump. But the likelihood of this being successful is very small

WSJ confirms that such plans continue to populate the deluded minds of US leadership:

From the above WSJ piece:

Attempting to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export hub, would harm the country’s oil industry but it also would put American forces directly in harm’s way. Troops would be easy targets for Iranian missiles and drones, U.S. officials and analysts say.

Retired Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie said the U.S. should still consider a Kharg Island operation. “That’s something we should think about doing because possession of Iranian soil would be a significant factor in future negotiations with Iran,” he said Sunday on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”

Another WSJ piece posits an even more extreme scenario to capture all Iranian territory proper along the coast itself, rather than just the islands: 

Land invasion

At the extreme, Trump has the option of a large and costly ground operation to seize the territory around the waterway, whose rocky shores present unique challenges. That would require thousands of troops in an operation that would likely take months.

Iran has been preparing for a possible invasion since before the war. The paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has 190,000 troops, along with the country’s regular army, and specializes in fights against better-armed foes.

A ground operation on Iran’s coastline would leave U.S. troops extremely vulnerable to attacks from the country’s rear, said David Des Roches, a former Persian Gulf-focused U.S. defense official.

And some believe the US is now setting the stage and ‘shaping the battlefield’ for that very possibility: 

As the above states, yesterday the US actually hit several key bridges connecting the coastal Bandar Abbas region to its neighboring western regions of Larestan and Shiraz:

Iranian Fars News confirmed: 

Recall that the Israeli plan was to send Kurdish forces across the Iraqi border into Iran, and recently the US instigated a kind of anti-Iranian coup in Iraq, with speculation being that it was in preparation to set the stage for a ground assault into Iran by first weakening Iranian proxies in Iraq. 

Trump may be naively hoping that other Gulf countries step up to the plate and offer such ground support, which is unlikely to happen. 

Trump is being fed misinformation on Iran from his Mossad-tainted stovepipes. As an example, just take a look at the exchange below, where Trump demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge—or even care, for that matter—as to how much combat power the Iranians have left: 

So: “Nobody knows” how many missiles Iran has, not even Trump or the US. But don’t worry, Iran “will be defeated very soon”, the swaggering POTUS nonchalantly remarks:

As for Hormuz, CENTCOM continues pretending it is fully “open” as even neutral maritime carriers laugh in the US’s face: 

Read the exchange below as reported by WSJ for a belly laugh: 

Trump, on the other hand, seems to think “oil is flowing like never before”, as per another unhinged rant: 

Some pundits are now proposing that Iran could be “overplaying” its Hormuz hand because Gulf countries are slowly moving toward redirecting oil via inland pipelines, to the point where Hormuz would theoretically no longer retain leverage for Iran.

The problem with this thesis is that it misunderstands the core dynamic of the entire war. Hormuz has presented a convenient focal point for the US administration, partly because after losing the wider war against Iran, Trump thinks liberating Hormuz can be used as a quick off-ramp and getaway damage control plan to save face. 

In reality, Hormuz has nothing to do with US’s inability to defeat Iran, overthrow its leadership, and turn the country into a fractured client state and banana republic in one. 

Hormuz had nothing to do with US’s inability to defend its bases from Iranian attacks which damaged or destroyed a large swath of US’s most critical regional assets. If you removed Hormuz from the equation, it would not change the fact that US’s aimless bombing campaign is incapable of crippling the Iranian state to the needed point of no return. 

In short: Iran has successfully defended itself from an all-out attack by Israel-US via its own innate military means that have little to do with, nor rely on, Hormuz. 

Sure, the strait adds a kind of pressure timer on the US, as economic life lines slowly seep away and oil prices creep up. But even if you took that away, there still remain other important ‘timers’, not least of which are dwindling US’s weapons stocks, waning domestic political capital, etc. 

That’s without even getting into the fact that Iran can strike the newly proposed pipelines and infrastructure, which kind of obviates the whole thing to begin with. 

Latest satellite images show Iran’s newest strikes have again wiped out major sections of US and allied bases. 

Here in Jordan’s King Faisal Air Base: 

They continue to claim no casualties while large amounts of medevac-capable C-17s were again witnessed departing the region after the Iranian blows. 

Iran launches massive strikes against key US and allied facilities

▪️Satellite images show the results of strikes by the IRGC on an American maritime surveillance radar station on the Salam rocks, as well as on an air defense radar in the Ghanam area of Oman.
▪️Iran also announced strikes on three buildings in the Zaid military complex in the capital of the UAE, and on the King Faisal base in Jordan.

The MQ-9 Reaper fleet likewise continued getting massacred as another one was shot down by Iranian forces: 

Another American MQ-9A Reaper reconnaissance and strike UAV shot down by Iranian air defenses has been found in the mountains of Dehloran County, in the southern part of Ilam Province bordering Iraq.

The IRGC had previously reported that one of its air defense systems had shot down an MQ-9A somewhere near Andimeshk, in the north of Khuzestan Province. This must be the same drone, since Andimeshk and Dehloran counties directly border each other.

As of this time, the US has again been massively airlifting assets from Europe to the Mideast, including more fighter jets, which can only mean further rounds of strikes: 

Based on the recent activity of the U.S. air transport fleet in the region, it appears that the Americans are once again amassing resources for strikes against Iran. The air bridge is operating at nearly the same intensity as it was before the start of Operation "Epic Fury."

Prominent Iranian academic Seyed Marandi claims that Trump is definitely planning for a land invasion of some kind, which he has been allegedly planning with Gulf allies:

It all rests on whether Trump believes Iranian deterrence has been “pushed back far enough” inland, as he hinted at the very opening. Should his advisors inform him the area is safe and secure, he could make an attempt of some sort, but by all appearances it would take a long time of further bombing and degrading of Iranian assets to even approach such a point. 

Iran on the other hand continues to threaten the closure of Bab Al-Mandab as a final lever of escalation should the US proceed to bombing Iranian power plants and other key civilian infrastructure assets. 

As a parting video demonstrating US’s powerlessness in thwarting Iran in Hormuz, here is Rubio’s voice cracking as he histrionically goes full “Karen” while threatening to call the UN’s “HR” department on Iran:

What is the purpose of the UN? he asks, if the body refuses to act on Iran’s dominion over Hormuz. 

Well, let’s see, Marco: Hormuz was fully open before you began an unprovoked war of aggression on Iran. Now your own sitting president is not only both blowing up ships in the strait—just as Iran is doing—but, in mirror fashion, is even planning to begin charging tolls on transiting nations. 

Which violator should the UN prosecute? 


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