Friday, July 3, 2026

250 YEARS: The United States – from independence to empire. Part 1

250 YEARS: The United States – from independence to empire

Part One: the revolution. 

by Michael Roberts

On the 4th July 2026 it will be 250 years since the 13 British colonies in North America declared independence from the British colonial power at a congress in Philadelphia.  Since independence, the United States of America, as it came to be called, expanded to the West to encompass the whole continental area and later built an overseas empire in the Americas and on to the Pacific. By the end of the 19th century, the US had become a major economic and industrial power, and by the end of the WW2 in the 20th century, the US became the dominant industrial, financial and military power globally.  ‘Pax Americana’ epitomised the period from mid-20th century to its end.  However, in the three decades of the 21st century, that dominance began to give way (relatively) to new emergent economic and political rivals.

The rise of US capitalism over 250 years mirrors almost exactly the rise of capitalism to become the dominant mode of production globally.  In the mid-18th century, capitalist accumulation was still very much confined to trade and even less to farming.  Industrialisation was not the motive force of growth and the vast majority of the population in the Americas, Europe and Asia lived and worked on the land.

1776 was also the year that the Scottish enlightenment economist, Adam Smith, published his still famous book, The Wealth of Nations, which provided the theoretical and empirical foundation for the ending of feudal and semi-feudal restrictions on growth and prosperity.  Smith argued that the wealth of nations should and could be built on free markets for buying and selling, with minimal government interference and with the ending of state-controlled monopolies.  Such freedom would enable increased ‘division of labour’ to maximise productivity and the accumulation of capital.  The rise of US capitalism has personified Smith’s expectations – but it has also starkly revealed the faultlines and contradictions in the capitalist mode of human social organisation.

The rise (and fall?) of US capitalism can be divided into four historical periods: 1) 1776: independence from British colonial power and the expansion of the US empire; 2) 1861-64: the Civil War that forced the submission of the slaveholding states to federal power and accelerated industrialisation and capitalist markets throughout the continent, along with the expansion of the US empire into the Americas and the Pacific; 3) 1941-45: after two world wars, US global hegemony was confirmed and the international rules of trade, order and institutions came under US control; and 4) from 1991: with the end of the Cold War as the Soviet Union collapsed, but ironically, far from the US sustaining total global dominance (with the ‘end of history’), US imperialism went into relative decline, both economically and politically, even if it is still by far the most powerful nation on the planet.

The Founding Fathers who signed the Declaration of Independence on 4 July 1776 did so first and foremost to obtain ‘home rule’ from Britain, in order to gain specific political and economic rights denied by the British Crown (which had also denied such rights to Ireland at the same time).  But the Founding Fathers in no way wanted a systemic restructuring of society . Led primarily by the wealthy planter and mercantile elite, their goal was to eliminate British interference, while preserving established social hierarchies and property traditions.  However, to succeed in their aims, the elite had to enlist the support of the poor farmers and the multitude in the coastal towns.  So, as in any such rebellion or revolution, the War of Independence developed into a class conflict within the ‘national’ struggle for freedom from British rule.  Apparently, “all men are created equal” (of course, not women, not slaves, not native Americans), said the Founding Fathers. So even in a highly unequal society that was the 13 colonies, some encouragement had to be given to the poor multitude.

Indeed, from the Boston Tea Party in 1773 through Yorktown in 1781 and the Treaty of Paris in 1783, the Revolution became a civil war. By 1780, about a third of the roughly 2,100,000 free citizens of the British colonies that became the ‘United States’ would have described themselves, with mixed idealism and self-interest, as Patriots. But another third stayed loyal to the British Empire. Threatened with being tarred and feathered, having their property seized, about 60,000 of these roughly 700,000 Loyalists decamped to Canada or Britain. The final third of the colonists occupied the uneasy middle. They were not willing to pledge their lives and fortunes to a bloody, collective war with the British Empire, but neither would they sustain a fierce and also bloody loyalty to the British king and country.

Historians calculate that 25,000 to 70,000 Patriots died directly because of the war, killed by camp fever and musket fire. Some 7,000 Loyalists did too. An additional 130,000 Americans were killed by a spike in smallpox that the movement of populations during the war exacerbated. The American revolution was hell. Nearly as many died relative to the population as in the civil war of the 1860s, ie almost 4 percent of the free population. By comparison, about one-third of 1 percent of Americans died in World War II. The Revolution for ‘democracy and independence’ was a bloody business.

The struggle for independence became a war and a civil war first because of the deteriorating economic situation for the British empire after they managed to defeat the French in so-called seven years war of 1764-71, in which many colonists and native Americans fought.  From the early 1600s, British settlers in North America had relied on overseas trade for their well-being. Trade furnished the colonists with clothing and blankets, nails and firearms, cooking implements and metal goods, and other tools and materials that could not be produced locally. Without these imports, their standard of living might have suffered so much that they would not have stayed.

But after the French war, booty from the French and revenues from British troops stationed in North America disappeared.  Interest rates soared, forcing real estate prices ever downward, eventually to a half or even a third of their highest point. The colonists appealed to the Mother Country Britain for aid, but at every turn, the British Crown and its parliament in Westminster looked to get the colonists to pay from the war against France.

First came onerous trade restrictions that cramped intra- and intercolonial trade. Cut off from traditional trading partners abroad, the colonists could not earn sufficient foreign exchange (species) abroad. Next came the Currency Act, which made it unlawful for the colonies to issue any more fiat paper money. Then came the straw that broke the camel’s back: the Stamp Act, which required colonists to pay a tax on any printed material (that encompassed everything from legal documents to newspapers).  The Patriotic elite roused the population to oppose ‘taxation without representation’ – somewhat ironic given that back in Britain much of the people had to pay taxes decided by a parliament that elected members from just 1% of British adults.

The call for ‘democracy’ sounded the bell for independence.  In January 1776, Thomas Paine, a poor artisan who had immigrated from Britain, wrote a pamphlet called Common Sense, presenting in an exciting and impressive fashion the case for an independent Republic, not just representation under the British Crown. It was a massive best seller (100,000 copies) and spread across all classes and especially to the rank and file in the Patriot army.  

But democracy in Paine’s sense was not the aim of the Founding Fathers.  Throughout the war against the British, they were determined to ensure that any radical democratic movements and proposals were stopped.  Military leader, George Washington, one of the richest men in the colonies with thousands of slaves and many acres of land, tried to stop the recruitment of slaves to the army even as the British were offering freedom to them if they joined the Crown’s ranks.  Eventually, Washington had to give way.  But he still crushed any rebellions and mutinies in the army, just as Cromwell had done in the 1640s English Civil War. The most famous of these attempts to turn independence into economic equality was the so-called Shays rebellion in 1780, after the war against the British had been won.

Such rebellions frightened the merchant and slave-holder elite and encouraged them to ensure that the loose Confederation of colonial states was solidified into a Constitution deliberately designed to curb any democracy for the many over the few. There was to be a President to replace the British King and the revolution’s military leader Washington was elected by acclamation as the first.  And there was to be a Senate composed of the elite to ensure no anti-business, anti-slavery and anti-land majority would hold sway.  The President would be elected not by a mass adult vote, but by an ‘electoral college’ that strengthened the slave states and weakened the most populous states in the North. And there would be a Supreme Court of elected-for-life judges that could block any measures that were ‘unconstitutional’.

Those who looked to rebel against this ‘stitch-up’of democracy were greeted with vicious repression or the cry: “Go West, young man” –  ie go beyond the Blue Ridge mountains to seek your fortune.  From the very beginning of the revolution, both the elite and the multitude in the colonies looked to gain lands in a massive continent as the way to increased their prosperity. The British had blocked this and assigned those lands to the native American nations.  With the defeat of the British, the flood to the West began – acting as a powerful safety valve against rebellion within the ex-colonies.  The native American tribal nations were subject to relentless policies of genocide (similar to that now repeated in Gaza), with their populations decimated and their food sources (buffalo) annihilated. Meanwhile, slavery in the southern colonies was cemented, despite the British attempts to end it globally. 

The American revolution was thus a ‘bourgeois revolution’ (with some peculiar institutions left intact – requiring further action later).  Yes, the revolution had to mobilise the poorer classes to succeed, but only to establish an independent capitalist state that would eventually rule the world. 

In the next part, I shall look at the American economy in the 19th century: the expansion of an empire across the continent and Latin America; and after the civil war in the 1860s, the industrialisation of America and its further imperial expansion into the Pacific. 

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Israel is an apartheid state – and its weird marriage laws show us how

 Israel is an apartheid state – and its weird marriage laws show us how

Israel is the only country in the world that does not recognise its own nationality. Why? Because a common national identity would sabotage Israel’s carefully veiled system of segregation.

Johnathan Cook, June 30th.

Israel’s supporters have gone apoplectic over a short post on X from the journalist Mehdi Hasan, highlighting Israel’s peculiar marriage laws.

Hasan asks: “Did you know that you can’t have a civil or secular marriage in Israel?”

He’s not wrong. Israel has banned civil marriage. You can wed only in a ceremony strictly controlled by religious authorities. If you want a civil marriage, you have to travel to another country. 

Why, you might reasonably wonder. Isn’t Israel a modern, secular, western-style liberal democracy? After all, that’s what our politicians and media keep telling us.

The most popular rejoinder to Hasan from Israel’s apologists – that the situation is no better in Saudi Arabia – is not quite the flex they seem to imagine. So Israel offers the same human rights protections as Saudi Arabia? Impressive.

Others have pointed out that Israel inherited the so-called “millet” system from the Ottoman empire, which gave the leaders of each confessional group across the Middle East autonomous control over their community’s religious affairs.

Doubtless, 150 years ago the system worked relatively well in reducing communal tensions in religiously diverse parts of a large empire. It prevented officials in Constantinople – modern-day Istanbul – from getting dragged deeply into the day-to-day affairs of its often distant subjects.

But 150 years ago, Britain sent children up chimneys to sweep them. The law was changed around that time to stop this abusive and dangerous practice.

Israel was established nearly eight decades ago, supposedly as a secular, western-style liberal democracy. It has had 78 years to change those archaic Ottoman marriage laws.

Why hasn’t it done so?

All the bluster decrying Hasan’s post is a desperate attempt to deflect attention away from the fact that Israel’s antiquated marriage laws survive because they are useful to Israel.

In fact, they are more than that. They are a core component of Israel’s version of apartheid – a racist system of segregation Israel has successfully shielded from the view of western publics with the help of western politicians and media.

‘Demographic threat’

Israel’s ban on civil marriage is central to its efforts to prevent what past racist societies, such as apartheid South Africa and the American Deep South, termed “miscegenation” – that is, sexual relations between different ethnic groups. You might remember that the Nazis had unpleasant views on this subject too.

Here is the current finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, opposing miscegenation in 2016: 

Preventing assimilation in the Jewish state is completely legitimate and not at all racist. You are assuming as a basis for the discussion that preventing intermarriage is wrong, while ignoring the fact that most [Jewish] girls who go with Arabs are poor girls who are being used.

Former education minister Rafi Peretz called mixed marriages involving Jews a “second Holocaust”. 

In Israel, such views are entirely mainstream. In 2018, Yitzhak Herzog, Israel’s current president and the former leader of an ostensible leftwing Israeli party, described mixed marriages among American Jews as a “plague” for which a “solution” had to be found – presumably by copying Israel’s approach. 

In Israel, the chief concern is not about marriages between Jews and the Palestinians under occupation – which Israel and its supporters like, bogusly, to present as a straightforward “security” matter. 

In the occupied territories, Israel uses far blunter methods than laws to prevent any kind of intimate relations developing between Jews and a captive Palestinian population. It prefers physical containment and violence. 

Palestinians under occupation are forcibly separated from Israeli Jews. They are hemmed into their own tightly confined ghettoes by Israel’s network of steel and concrete barriers; by the Israeli army; by checkpoints; by separate, apartheid roads in the West Bank; and by Jewish militias living on stolen lands in so-called “settlements”.

There is little chance of interaction, let alone intermarriage, in such circumstances – except when Israeli soldiers or armed Jewish settlers come rampaging into Palestinian communities to destroy cropskill livestockpoison wellstorch homes and cars, and beat up – and sometimes kill – the inhabitants.

Nonetheless, there is still a potential vulnerability in Israel’s system of segregation.

In 1948, Israel expelled 80 per cent of the Palestinian population from their homes and lands in an area that was henceforth to be called, not Palestine, but the “Jewish” state of Israel. 

A few Palestinians remained, however, inside those borders – mostly from oversight or error. Despite covert efforts by Israel for several years after the 1948 war to force them out of the state, its officials eventually came under international pressure to give these stranded Palestinians citizenship – even if in practice, as we shall see, this conferred on them very inferior rights.

Even today, Israel is extremely worried about a supposed threat from its third-class Palestinian “citizens” – officially termed “Israel’s Arabs”. Given a higher birth rate, their numbers have grown exponentially over eight decades. They now comprise a fifth of Israel’s population. 

Israeli journalists, academics and politicians, including prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, regularly call the country’s Palestinian citizens a “demographic threat”, and endlessly worry about the “Palestinian womb”. 

No state of all its citizens

But Israel faces a countervailing pressure. If it makes its treatment of Palestinian citizens too obviously racist and oppressive, some outsiders might start to realise it is not the secular western-style liberal democracy it claims to be.

You will hear the pro-Israel lobby in the West tell you that so-called “Israeli Arabs” have exactly the same rights as Israel’s Jewish population, guaranteed by Israel’s Declaration of Independence. That is not even remotely true.

Adalah, a leading legal rights group in Israel, has a database showing more than 70 laws that explicitly discriminate between Jewish citizens and Palestinian citizens. These laws form the core of Israel’s apartheid system.

Israel’s Basic Laws, a sort of constitution, explicitly exclude any principle of civic equality. Every attempt by a Palestinian party in Israel to get a debate in the parliament on Israel becoming a “state of all its citizens” – that is, a liberal democracy – is barred from discussion. And in 2018 the Israeli government passed a Nation-State Law declaring that Israel belongs to the Jewish people, not to all the citizens who live there. 

As with Palestinians under occupation, Israel has almost entirely confined its Palestinian citizens to their own segregated, underfunded, under-resourced communities (townships) on less then 3 per cent of the country’s land. 

A small minority of Palestinian citizens inside Israel live in segregated, deprived neighbourhoods of what are misleadingly termed “mixed” cities. Other Palestinian citizens, the most oppressed of all, live in communities inhabited by their families for centuries but which have been criminalised by an Israeli state that refuses to recognise them.

Many hundreds of Jewish rural communities, by contrast, operate effectively as exclusive membership clubs. They have the power to excludePalestinian citizens – a right they take full advantage of.

Separate planning structures ensure massively overcrowded Palestinian communities inside Israel are unable to build new homes and expand. Palestinian children are schooled in a separate and much inferior education system. 

For the who wish to dig deeper, I have written a lengthy essay setting out the details of Israel’s apartheid system here.

The ban on civil marriage inside Israel’s borders is not usually cited, even by critics, as an example of its apartheid system of rule. But the ban persists because it is the ideal way to conceal segregation under the veneer of equal treatment.

Israel’s Palestinian citizens must marry in ceremonies conducted by their religious community’s leaders: by Muslim clerics, or by various Christian churches, or by the Druze clergy.

It is the same for Jews in israel. They must be married by an Orthodox rabbi.

So everyone faces the same restrictions. But the point is this: the equality of treatment ensures very unequal outcomes. It is designed that way.

Fascist thugs

Inside Israel, intermarriage is only possible if one party can convert to their partner’s religion.

Israel’s Orthodox rabbinate makes it impossible for Palestinians under occupation to convert to Judaism in Israel, with the head of its conversion authority stating in 2016 that any such applicants are rejected “without review because of their ethnic origin”. 

Meanwhile, Israel makes almost as difficult for anyone else considered a non-Jew to convert to Judaism, most especially Palestinian citizens. Over decades, there have been only a handful of such cases. 

In practice, this means that in any relationship between a Palestinian citizen of Israel and an Israeli Jew, it almost always falls to the Israeli Jew to convert to the religion of the Palestinian citizen, whether a Muslim, Christian or Druze. That entails the Jewish partner losing their Jewish status and the many consequential privileges inside Israel that derive from that status. 

Israel has found this is a much better solution than apartheid South Africa’s, where blacks and whites were explicitly barred by law from marrying. Israel can achieve the same result more quietly. 

Given the entirely segregated structure of Israeli society, and the strong social taboos among Israeli Jews on “miscegenation”, the number of intermarriages in Israel between Jews and Palestinian citizens barely reaches double digits each year.

There are even groups like Lehava – Israel’s version of the Ku Klux Klan – that go around beating up Palestinians caught anywhere near Jewish neighbourhoods in Jerusalem and terrorising any young Jewish women suspected of being romantically involved with a Palestinian. Lehava hold noisy and disruptive protests to shame the odd Jewish woman who converts and marries a Palestinian citizen. 

All of this happens with a quiet wink from the authorities. The current police minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, has long been a patron of the fascist, Jewish supremacist thugs of Lehava.

In the rare cases of a Jew converting and marrying a Palestinian citizen, the Palestinian partner faces innumerable legal and social obstacles to integrating into a Jewish community they do not belong to.

Instead, the Jewish partner moves to a Palestinian community – an Israeli version of a township like Soweto – and educates their children inside the vastly inferior “Arab” school system. The former Jew loses most of the ethnic privileges they previously enjoyed inside the world’s only “Jewish” state.

Faced with this as their future, such couples often seize the opportunity for neither to convert and instead marry and live abroad.

Jewish ‘nation’

None of these difficulties are accidental. It is exactly how you would expect an apartheid system that prefers to obscure its apartheid character to structure its laws – and thereby help its lobby in the West, including the western political and media class, to claim that Israel is “the only democracy in the Middle East”.

Israel learnt from the mistakes of the old South Africa. It mastered the modern arts of public relations – or at least it did until Benjamin Netanyahu tore up the script by erasing Gaza.

Inside Israel, the apartheid system extends far beyond marriage laws to touch all areas of life.

Here is another way Israel has obscured its apartheid system – again not in the occupied territories, but inside Israel itself.

The same system that denies Israelis the possibility of a civil or secular marriage also refuses to recognise that they have any kind of civil or secular identity, simply as Israelis. By law, everyone in Israel must belong to a confessional group: as a Jew, Muslim, Christian or Druze. 

Which makes sense of another little-known fact about Israel: Israel is the only country in the world that does not recognise its own – in this case, Israeli – nationality. Why? For the simple reason that, were Israelis to share a common national identity, it would be much harder for the Israeli state to operate its apartheid system. 

Israeli nationality exists only as a fiction on Israeli passports to allow the population to travel internationally. Inside Israel, everyone is identified by their confessional group. 

In Israel, “Jewish” is treated as a nationality. Remember the 2018 Nation State Law. What it declared is that the state of Israel belongs exclusively to the “nation” of Jews – that is, to every Jew around the globe, not just those living in Israel. 

Muslims and Christians are lumped together into a similarly artificial “Arab” nationality, while the Druze have their own, different nationality. The same Nation State Law makes clear that the state of Israel does not belong to these other “nations”, despite their families having lived on the same lands for centuries. Palestinian citizens are nothing more than guests – and unwelcome ones at that. 

This segregation carries through to Israel’s ID cards. These cards, which must be carried at all times, used to include a section that expressly showed the “nationality” of each Israeli. But this section attracted uncomfortable scrutiny during a lengthy and ultimately unsuccessful legal battle by a group of dissident Israelis seeking recognition of an Israeli nationality. Officials removed the category from the card. However, Israel’s population register still includes a nationality classification. 

In addition to Jew, Arab and Druze, there are more than 120 other categories to deal with all the anomalies. I was just one such anomaly after I married a Palestinian Christian and entered a lengthy and difficult naturalisation process. My nationality was classed as “British”. 

Why all this complexity? Why all this unique weirdness? 

Because Israel needs to conceal its system of apartheid. The old South Africa simply said: one law for whites and another for blacks. 

Israel knows this no longer plays well. So it has devised a convoluted, baffling system that few understand as a way to avoid attracting attention and criticism. 

Special Jewish rights

So let’s end with just one example of how Israel’s apartheid system works in practice. 

Notionally, Israel confers on all its citizens – Jews, Muslims, Christians, Druze – equal rights as citizens. But with a sleight of hand, it then undermines those equal rights by conferring superior “national” rights on one group only, Jews. If there is a conflict between a citizenship right and a Jewish “national” right, you’ve probably already guessed that the Jewish national right takes precedence. 

Education is a good illustration. All Israeli citizens enjoy a right to have their children educated, because education is a citizenship right. But lots of veiled manoeuvres – like extra budgets for National Priority Areas, special subsidies for Jewish religious schools, funding from the diaspora, and bigger tax disbursements from central government for Jewish local authorities – mean Jewish schools are far better funded than “Arab” schools.

Education for Israel’s Palestinian citizens has been underfunded for eight decades. So even though Israel’s apologists will claim the funding gaps are slowly narrowing, the continuing shortfall simply compounds a decades-long historical injustice. Arab schools are so far behind they can never catch up without aggressive additional funding Israel clearly has no intention of ever offering them.

There are massive shortages of classrooms and staff in dilapidated school buildings. Old books are often grossly outdated and poorly translated into Arabic by the state. Palestinian educational leaders have no input into the curriculum the community’s children are taught. There are strict controls by Jewish (usually racist) officials over what can be taught and who can teach. And on top of all this, huge cultural biases in matriculation exams make it far harder for Palestinian citizens to gain entry to universities in Israel. 

There are many other problems. For example, nearly one in 10 Palestinian children in Israel live in historic communities built on lands that the Israeli state now wishes to “Judaise” – reserve for the Jewish population – and are therefore denied all recognition. 

Treated like criminals, these children rarely have schools in their communities because no permanent buildings are allowed. What buildings there are cannot be connected to the electricity or water grids. Even children of kindergarten age must typically travel long distances – sometimes close to 60 km a day – to get to a licensed school. 

The forms of discrimination in education alone are endless. But they do not stop there. The discrimination is replicated in all major facets of life for Israel’s more than 2 million Palestinian citizens through these conceptual and legal contortions over religion, citizenship and nationality.

None of this should be a surprise. It is exactly what you would expect in an apartheid state like Israel.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Summer books: trade wars, billionaires and global warming

Summer books: trade wars, billionaires and global warming

Here are reviews of a few books that I could not ignore analysing this summer.

Michael Roberts

Let’s start with How to win a trade war by Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown.  Keynes, an ancestor of the John Maynard, formerly wrote for the Economist and now for the Financial Times.  Chad Bown is an international trade economist at the American Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

This is a truly irritating and fallacious book. But it does tell you all you need to know about what the governments of the major Western capitalist economies want to do about China’s rapid rise in manufacturing and trade globally: namely to launch a trade war with sanctions and tariffs.

As Keynes put it in an interview with Keynesian guru, Paul Krugman, “the conceit of the book is that you, the reader, are really interested in fighting a trade war, right? And we are the two nerdy kind of reluctant guides saying, “Uh, if you really want to do it, then, you know, we’ll give you the evidence that you need.”  “After all, we (presumably, the West) is in some sort of trade war, and really China is the part that’s driving this.”  Yes, according to mainstream economic theory, international trade benefits all with economies of scale etc and cheaper and better goods, but “in a world where we’re not friends with everyone and we don’t trust everything”, that does not follow.  We need to find out “new, new ways of protecting ourself against China’s subsidies.”

Bown is particularly dedicated to adopting bans and other sanctions on Chinese exports and companies in this apparently necessary trade war. We must carry out “the really hard task at hand of fighting the real trade war that needs to be fought, which is dealing with these challenges with China… with our partners and allies.”  You can see that the book starts from the premiss that what’s good for Western capital is good for us all; and the ‘enemy’ is China.

Let’s deal quickly with the fallacies of this book’s arguments. First, is the decline in economic growth and manufacturing in the US and now Europe due to some ‘China shock’ caused by unfair trade practices adopted by an overproducing Chinese manufacturing sector?  No.  As Jason Furman, former chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers, argues, the so-called “China shock” is a myth. According to him, “85 to 95% of Americans benefit” from trade with China, and “China has been part of helping [the US economy] work, not hurting it work.” In other words, the narrative that China “stole” American jobs and wages is the exact opposite of reality.

Furman also points out that the majority of what the US imports from China isn’t consumer goods: “more than half of what we import is actually inputs into the manufacturing process itself.” In other words, Chinese imports make US manufacturing MORE competitive as it decreases their input costs. If you were to cut all Chinese imports, you’d cripple U.S. manufacturing as it would no longer be able to compete on price with anyone.  And that applies to Europe as well.

But this notion that China is somehow “stealing” Western jobs and prosperity has become the unquestioned premiss of Western governments and financial media, and in the assumptions of this book. The European leaders’ solution to the so-called China shock is to slap tariffs on Chinese imports, copying Trump’s tariff war.  But is China overproducing at unfair low prices for world markets or is America’s trade deficit really a result of the simple fact that the US buys more than it produces and covers the gap with imports? 

As for Europe, the shift in China’s trade balance with Europe has been truly dramatic.  The deficit has more or less doubled in the years since COVID.

But why has this deficit shot up? German Chancellor Merz says that China is unfairly keeping its currency undervalued. But there is little evidence to suggest any exchange-rate-driven price dumping. The unit exchange value of Chinese exports is on an upward trend and moves closely with those of Japan and South Korea. A large part of the Chinese export surge to Europe is accounted for by green energy goods, which are heavily in demand for Europe’s energy transition. Another large element are chemicals, the production of which has been hit in Europe by high gas prices.  European imports are thus not the result of China’s low valued yuan, but instead from the necessary demand for key products.

Moreover, China’s subsidies for industry are in no way outsized compared to the European Green Deal or Biden’s IRA.  The German car industry got comparable subsidies for reinvestment. But rather than being ploughed back into much needed new investment, these were paid out to shareholders in the form of dividends. In 2023 alone, as the Chinese EV avalanche was already upon them, Germany’s big three automakers, according to analysts at EY, paid out 31 billion euros in dividends.  

Overall, I have dealt with all these arguments against the ‘China shock’ in this post.   So I won’t go further on this. The real question that this book does not answer: is the solution for Europe and US manufacturers , or more important, for the majority of people in those two continents a trade war, as the authors assume?  I think not.

Inequality expert Gabriel Zucman has got a best seller out, called The need to tax billionaires. Zucman provides the reader with devastating facts about the inequality of wealth globally and its increased concentration in a handful of mega rich billionaires (and now even a trillionaire with Elon Musk).

Zucman shows that just 3000 households have 16% of the world’s total personal wealth and that share is accelerating.

Zucman argues that billionaires often pay a lower effective income tax rate than teachers or nurses because their wealth is tied up in companies and assets, which avoid income taxes unless sold. The billionaires hide much of their wealth in tax havens around the world to avoid paying tax. “This kind of global tax evasion has been one of the linchpins of rising inequality and growing government debt worldwide. It has also led many to lose hope in the very possibility of a fairer society, creating a breeding ground for the reactionary political movements that are thriving today.”

Zucman callsfor a coordinated global minimum tax requiring individuals with a net worth over $100 million to pay at least 2% of their wealth in taxes each year.   That would raise huge sums for governments to use on social needs and restore a fairer tax burden for all.

Zucman dismisses the cry that any wealth tax imposed by governments would actually lead to a loss tax revenue as the billionaires would all leave the country. He points out that if “all France’s billionaires were to flee to the Cayman Islands tomorrow, the loss of tax revenue to the country would be insignificant: around 0.03%.”  Zucman concludes that “it is time to finish what we started with income tax – a major advance for democracy – in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It is time finally to bring billionaires, who have never really been subject to income tax, into the fold. Carrying this unfinished revolution to completion is imperative if we wish to live by our most fundamental principles of equality before the law.”

My main criticism of Zucman’s book is it that it proposes only trying to redistribute wealth and income through taxation.  The point really is: why does such inequality arise?  Why are there billionaires in the first place?  It is not due mainly to tax evasion or low taxes; it is to do with the structure of capitalist economies.  The underlying inequality is the concentration of corporate assets in just a small number of companies globally.  In an updated investigation, a Swiss technology team found that just 1318 transnational corporations control the assets of the world’s economy. (Superconnected companies are red, very connected companies are yellow. The size of the dot represents revenue).

In effect, less than 1 per cent of the companies were able to control 40 percent of the entire network.” Most were financial institutions. The main shareholders of such companies thus become billionaires.  It is not just a question of properly taxing the billionaires as Zucman proposes, but instead to establish public ownership of the dominant large companies globally.  That would end the world of billionaires and allow governments to plan investment and production for social needs, not the profits of billionaire shareholders.

Public ownership of the world largest companies?  Surely, that’s totally utopian given their power to control governments and with governments that support the capitalist system?  But then expecting to get governments to impose a 2% wealth tax, which might seem a more modest proposal, is just as utopian under the present system.

The climate and accelerating global warming is literally a burning issue as even the Global North is now experiencing extreme heat waves through this summer.  Average global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels keep breaking new records.  Professor Lord Nicholas Stern is the most venerated climate economist and he has a new book out called The Growth Story of the 21st Century: The Economics and Opportunity of Climate Action

Stern presents a story of optimism that the global warming crisis can be resolved. Moreover, climate action and long-term sustainable growth are not conflicting strategies. His solutions? He advocates massive upfront green investment and international climate finance provided by a partnership between governments and private industry, along with carbon pricing, environmental taxation and cap-and-trade permit systems to make polluters pay.

In other words, these are all the mainstream economic policies that have been around since the Paris Agreement of 2015 to cap global warming  at 1.4-2.0C above pre-industrial levels.  And they have failed.  Fossil fuel production is not being phased out – on the contrary.  And funding for climate action has disappeared. As Brett Christophers has pointed out in his book, profitability for capital stands in the way of any real action on the climate. 

Instead of hoping that the big energy companies, the global banks and industrial combines will ‘see sense’ and invest in climate action as Stern advocates, the answer really lies in public ownership and planning, as economists Paul Cockshott, Alin Cottrell, and Jan Philip Dapprich explain in their book written many lost years ago.