Monday, March 30, 2026

No Kings Day. Millions Must Break From the Democratic Party's Stifling Grip and Bring Real Power to the Table


Source: Minnesota Reformer


By Sirantos Fotopoulos


Eight to nine million Americans took to the streets yesterday. That figure, if accurate, represents the single largest day of protest in the history of the republic — a number that ought to inspire something more than a modest, collegial pride in the capacity of a citizenry to inconvenience municipal traffic. And yet, when one examines what was actually said, what was actually demanded, and what the organisers have advertised as the desired outcome, a terrible deflation sets in. The crowd was enormous. The imagination animating it was not.


There is a distinction — one that the liberal mind has spent the better part of a century carefully avoiding — between the politics of expression and the politics of leverage. To march, to carry a sign, to chant in unison, is to engage in the former. It is to signal one's preferences, to perform one's values, to exist, for an afternoon, as a moral actor in a public space. It is not without worth. It is not, however, power. Power is not the expression of a preference; it is the capacity to impose a cost upon those who ignore it. And the cost that eight million Americans imposed on Saturday upon the systems that govern their working lives, their wages, their healthcare, their housing — was precisely nothing.


History is not generous to those who mistake visibility for leverage. Consider what actually broke the back of American apartheid — not the marches alone, magnificent as they were, but examples such as the Montgomery Bus Boycott of 1955, which lasted three hundred and eighty-one days and drained the municipal transit system of the revenue it depended upon. The citizens of Montgomery, Alabama did not merely express their contempt for segregation; they withdrew their economic participation from the machinery that enforced it. They hit the system where systems are built to feel: in the accounting ledger. The result was a Supreme Court ruling that the segregation of public buses was unconstitutional. This was not sentiment. This was organised economic coercion of the most disciplined and principled kind.


Or consider the Flint, Michigan sit-down strike of 1936 and 1937, when workers of the United Auto Workers occupied the General Motors plants at Fisher Body and refused to vacate. They did not petition. They did not rally in a public square and disperse at dusk. They seized the productive apparatus of the then largest corporation in the world and held it for forty-four days until General Motors recognised their union and their right to collective bargaining. The lesson was not lost on American capital, which is precisely why it has spent the ninety years since methodically dismantling the legal and institutional framework that made such actions possible.


The South African anti-apartheid movement succeeded not when it generated sympathetic international coverage, though it did, but when the combination of internal labor strikes and external sanctions made the maintenance of apartheid economically irrational for the white business class. In each of these cases, the mechanism of change was identical: the withdrawal or threatened withdrawal of productive participation. Not the expression of grievance, but the imposition of its costs upon those with the power to remedy it.

 

The question must then be put, with all appropriate directness, to the leadership of the organised American liberal center: why does it consistently channel these energies away from that mechanism and toward the electoral ballot box? The answer is not flattering, and the evidence for it is voluminous. The Democratic Party since Obama's election has had multiple opportunities — unified control of the federal government, enormous popular mandates, genuine public appetite for structural change — and in each instance it has deployed the language of transformation to deliver the reality of management. The Obama administration inherited the worst financial crisis since 1929, the product of a deregulated banking sector whose executives had enriched themselves catastrophically at public expense. Not one senior financial executive went to prison. The banks were recapitalised. The executives kept their bonuses. The foreclosure crisis was managed with instruments carefully calibrated to protect creditor interests. And the Democratic Party called this a rescue.


The party's record on war is, if anything, more damning. It was Obama that expanded the drone assassination programme into a bureaucratised machinery of extrajudicial killing across seven countries, that prosecuted more whistleblowers under the Espionage Act than all previous administrations combined, that continued the military presence in Afghanistan for another decade before a chaotic and humiliating exit, that armed the Saudi coalition in Yemen and presided in silence over one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes of the century. It was under Biden that the genocide in Gaza was not simply ignored, but prosecuted, funded, and armed.


The progressive base of the party organised, marched, donated, and delivered electoral victories — and received in return a programme that any honest foreign policy analyst would recognise as the managerial continuation of American imperial prerogative under a more articulate and palatable executive.


The corporate Democratic Party currently functions to absorb the energy of popular discontent, to translate it into electoral mobilisation, and to return it to the existing order shorn of its structural ambitions. It is the most sophisticated mechanism of co-optation in the democratic world, and it has been performing this function with remarkable consistency for five decades. The unions that appear at rallies like No Kings are not there as power-wielding institutions making demands upon the system; they are there as props, lending their iconography to a movement whose explicit horizon is a midterm election in which the same party, with the same donors and the same structural commitments, seeks to return to office.


None of this is an argument for despair, and anyone reaching for that conclusion has misread both the historical record and the present moment. Eight million people in the streets is not nothing. It is a vast reservoir of organised human will, and reservoirs can be redirected. The Minnesota general strike earlier this year — workers withdrawing their labor in explicit response to a specific act of state violence — demonstrated that the infrastructure for production-side politics exists, that it can be activated, and that it produces a qualitatively different kind of political pressure than any march. The task is not to condemn those eight million people but to argue, with all available force and clarity, for a different theory of change. And the point is to perpetuate such actions beyond a mere performative twenty-four hours.

 

That theory begins with the workplace. Not the polling station, not the consumer boycott, not the performative gestures against creeping authoritarianism — though these have their limited uses — but the site of production, where the worker's indispensability is a structural fact rather than a sentimental aspiration. A sustained general strike with clear demands imposes immediate and quantifiable costs upon the powerful in ways that eight million cleverly-worded signs do not. The rebuilding of genuine trade union power, particularly in the service sector, logistics, healthcare, and the supply chains upon which the entire economy depends, is the long-term project that a serious Left must pursue with the same discipline and patience that the Right has brought to its judicial and legislative programme over the past fifty years.

 

Alongside this, the municipalist tradition offers a more immediate path. Cities and counties can be won, administered, and used to build counter-institutions: public banks, community land trusts, public ownership of resources, and other such cooperative enterprises that remove productive assets from the speculative market and place them under democratic control. This is not utopian; it is the patient, unglamorous, brick-by-brick construction of a parallel economy that reduces dependence on the goodwill of a federal government and a corporate class that have repeatedly demonstrated they do not share the interests of the people who marched on Saturday.

 

The choice, stated plainly, is this: eight million people can return to this arrangement every few months, expressing their displeasure with ever-greater articulacy and ever-diminishing effect, until the next election cycle absorbs them and a party machine converts their passion into donations and voter turnout for candidates who will govern in the interests of the existing ruling class. Or they can ask the harder question — not who shall we vote for, but what shall we refuse to do, what shall we withhold, what shall we build in the spaces the present order cannot reach. The first path is comfortable, photogenic, and historically futile. The second is slow, difficult, unglamorous, and the only one that has ever actually worked.

Johnathan Cooke: Israel is making sure Trump can't find an off-ramp in Iran

Israel is making sure Trump can't find an off-ramp in Iran

Netanyahu pitched the war as a repeat of Israel’s apparent 'audacious feat' of smashing Hezbollah. The US president should have noted instead Israel’s moral and strategic defeat in Gaza


Johnathan Cook March 30th 2026

[First published by Middle East Eye]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must have persuaded Donald Trump that a war on Iran would unfold much like the pager attack in Lebanon 18 months ago.

The two militaries would jointly decapitate the leadership in Tehran, and it would crumble just as Hezbollah had collapsed – or so it then seemed – after Israel assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese group’s spiritual leader and military strategist.

If so, Trump bought deeply into this ruse. He assumed that he would be the US president to “remake the Middle East” – a mission his predecessors had baulked at since George W Bush’s dismal failure to achieve the same goal, alongside Israel, more than 20 years earlier.

Jonathan Cook 10d
Trump isn't the first US president tempted by an Israeli plan to destroy Iran and thereby "remake the Middle East", as this extract from my book Israel and the Clash of Civilisations sets out: https://jonathancook.substack.com/p/how-the-us-and-israel-came-close
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Netanyahu directed Trump’s gaze to Israel’s supposed “audacious feat” in Lebanon. The US president should have been looking elsewhere: to Israel’s colossal moral and strategic failure in Gaza.

There, Israel spent two years pummelling the tiny coastal enclave into dust, starving the population, and destroying all civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals.

Netanyahu publicly declared that Israel was "eradicating Hamas", Gaza’s civilian government and its armed resistance movement that had refused for two decades to submit to Israel’s illegal occupation and blockade of the territory.

In truth, as pretty much every legal and human rights expert long ago concluded, what Israel was actually doing was committing genocide – and, in the process, tearing up the rules of war that had governed the period following the Second World War.

But two and a half years into Israel’s destruction of Gaza, Hamas is not only still standing, it is in charge of the ruins.

Israel may have shrunk by some 60 per cent the size of the concentration camp the people of Gaza are locked into, but Hamas is far from vanquished.

Rather, Israel is the one that has retreated to a safe zone, from which it is resuming a war of attrition on Gaza’s survivors.

Surprises in store

When considering whether to launch an illegal war on Iran, Trump should have noted Israel’s complete failure to destroy Hamas after pounding this small territory – the size of the US city of Detroit – from the air for two years.

That failure was all the starker given that Washington had provided Israel with an endless supply of munitions.

Even sending in Israeli ground forces failed to quell Hamas’ resistance. These were the strategic lessons the Trump administration should have learnt.

If Israel could not overwhelm Gaza militarily, why would Washington imagine the task of doing so in Iran would prove any easier?

After all, Iran is 4,500 times larger than Gaza. It has a population, and military, 40 times bigger. And it has a fearsome arsenal of missiles, not Hamas’ homemade rockets.

But more important still, as Trump is now apparently learning to his cost, Iran – unlike Hamas in isolated Gaza – has strategic levers to pull with globe-shattering consequences.

Tehran is matching Washington’s climb up the escalation ladder rung by rung: from hitting US military infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states, and critical civilian infrastructure such as energy grids and desalination plants, to closing the Strait of Hormuz, the passage through which much of the world’s oil and energy supplies are transported.

Tehran is now sanctioning the world, depriving it of the fuel needed to turn the wheels of the global economy, in much the same way that the West sanctioned Iran for decades, depriving it of the essentials needed to sustain its domestic economy.

Unlike Hamas, which had to fight from a network of tunnels under the flat, sandy lands of Gaza, Iran has a terrain massively to its military advantage.

Granite cliffs and narrow coves along the Strait of Hormuz provide endless protected sites from which to launch surprise attacks. Vast mountain ranges in the interior offer innumerable hiding places – for the enriched uranium the US and Israel demand Iran hand over, for soldiers, for drone and missile launch sites, and for weapons production plants.

The US and Israel are smashing Iran’s visible military-related infrastructure, but – just as Israel discovered when it invaded Gaza – they have almost no idea what lies out of sight.

They can be sure of one thing, however: Iran, which has been readying for this fight for decades, has plenty of surprises in store should they dare to invade.

No trust in Trump

The main problem for Trump, the US narcissist-in-chief, is that he is no longer in charge of events – beyond a series of soundbites, alternating between aggression and accommodation, that appear only to have enrichedhis family and friends as oil markets rise and fall on his every utterance.

Trump lost control of the military fight the moment he fell for Netanyahu’s pitch.

He may be commander-in-chief of the strongest military in the world, but he has now found himself unexpectedly in the role of piggy in the middle.

He is largely powerless to bring to an end an illegal war he started. Others now dictate events. Israel, his chief ally in the war, and Iran, his official enemy, hold all the important cards. Trump, despite his bravado, is being dragged along in their tailwind.

He can declare victory, as he has repeatedly sounded close to doing. But, having released the genie from the bottle, there is little he can actually do to bring the fighting to a close.

Unlike the US, Israel and Iran have an investment in keeping the war going for as long as either can endure the pain. Each regime believes – for different reasons – that the struggle between them is existential.

Israel, with its zero-sum worldview, is afraid that, were the military playing field in the Middle East to be levelled by Iran matching Israel’s nuclear-power status, Tel Aviv would no longer exclusively have Washington’s ear.

It would no longer be able, at will, to spread terror across the region. And it would have to reach a settlement with the Palestinians, rather than its preferred plan to commit genocide and ethnically cleanse them.

Similarly, Iran has concluded – based on recent experience – that the US, and especially Trump, can no more be trusted than Israel.

In 2018, in his first term, the US president tore up the nuclear deal signed by his predecessor, Barack Obama. Last summer Trump launched strikes on Iran in the midst of talks. And then late last month he unleashed this war, just as renewed talks were on the brink of success, according to mediators.

Trump’s words are worthless. He could agree to terms tomorrow, but how could Tehran ever be sure that it would not face another round of strikes six months later?

Iran looks to the fate of Gaza over the past two decades. Israel began by blockading the territory, and putting the population on a diet that intensified if they refused to keep quiet in their concentration camp.

Then Israel began “mowing the lawn” every few years – that is, pounding the enclave with air strikes. And Israel ended by unleashing a genocide.

The leaders of Iran are not willing to risk going down that path.

Instead, they believe they need to teach the US a lesson it won’t soon forget. Iran seeks to inflict so much havoc on the global economy, and US client states in the Gulf, that Washington dare not consider a sequel.

This week, the New York Times reported that Iranian strikes had left many of the 13 US military bases in the region “all but uninhabitable”. The 40,000 American troops in the Gulf have had to be “relocated to hotels and office spaces”, including thousands who have been “dispersed… as far away as Europe”.

Stoking the flames

As becomes clearer by the day, US and Israeli interests over Iran are now in opposition.

Trump needs to bring calm back to the markets as soon as possible to avoid a global depression and, with it, the collapse of his domestic support. He must find a way to reimpose stability.

With air strikes failing to dislodge either the ayatollahs or the Revolutionary Guard, he has one of two courses of action open to him: either climb down and engage in humiliating negotiations with Iran, or try to topple the regime through a ground invasion and impose a leader of his choosing.

But given the fact that Iran is not done wreaking damage on the US, and has zero reason to trust Trump’s good faith, Washington is being driven inexorably towards the second path.

Israel, on the other hand, bitterly opposes the first option, negotiations, which would take it back to square one. And it suspects the second option is unachievable.

The primary lesson from Gaza is that Iran’s vast terrain is likely to make invading troops sitting ducks for attack from an unseen enemy.

And there is far too much support for the leadership among Iranians – even if westerners never hear of it – for Israel and the US to foist on the populace the pretender to the throne, Reza Pahlavi, who has been cheering on the bombing of his own people safely from the sidelines.

Israel initiated this war with an entirely different agenda. It seeks chaos in Iran, not stability. That is what it has been trying to engineer in Gaza and Lebanon – and there is every sign it is seeking the same outcome in Iran.

This should have long been understood in Washington.

This week, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s former national security adviser, citedrecent comments by Danny Citrinowicz, a former veteran Israeli military intelligence lead on Iran, that Netanyahu’s aim is to “just break Iran, cause chaos”. Why? “Because,” says Sullivan, “as far as they’re concerned, a broken Iran is less of a threat to Israel.”

That is the reason Israel keeps assassinating Iranian leaders, as it did earlier in Gaza, in the knowledge that even more belligerent figures will take their place. It wants radicalised, vengeful leaders who refuse to engage, not pragmatists ready to talk.

That is why Israel is targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran, as it did in Gaza and is doing right now in Lebanon, to instil hopelessness and foment division, and to provoke Tehran to lash out in retaliation, provoking more outrage from Iran’s Gulf neighbours and drag the US in still deeper.

That is why Israel has been covertly liaising with – and doubtless arming – minority groups in and around Iran, as it has again done in Gaza and Lebanon, in the hope that it can stoke the flames of internal dissolution yet higher.

States in civil war, consumed by their own internal battles, pose little threat to Israel.

Confusing messages

In typical fashion, Trump is sending confusing messages. He is seeking to negotiate – though with whom is unclear – while amassing troops for a ground invasion.

It is hard to analyse the US president’s intentions because his utterances make precisely no strategic sense.

Last Wednesday night, he told a fundraiser in Washington that Iran wanted to “make a deal so badly”, then added: “They’re afraid to say it because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people. They’re also afraid they’ll be killed by us.”

This is not the logic of a superpower looking to shore up its own authority, and restore order to the region. It is the logic of a cornered crime boss, hoping that a last desperate roll of the dice may disrupt his rivals’ plans sufficiently to turn the tables on them.

That roll of the dice looks likely to be a plan to send US special forces to occupy Kharg Island, the main hub for Iran’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump appears to think that he can hold the island as ransom, demanding Tehran reopen the Strait or lose its access to its own oil.

According to diplomats, Iran is not only refusing to concede control over the Strait but threatening to carpet-bomb the island – and US forces on it – rather than give Trump leverage. Tehran is also warning that it will start targeting shipping in the Red Sea, a second waterway vital to the transport of oil supplies from the region.

It still has cards to play.

This is a game of chicken Trump will struggle to win. All of which leaves the Israeli leadership sitting pretty.

If Trump ups the stakes, Iran will do so too. If Trump declares victory, Iran will keep firing to underscore that it decides when things come to a halt. And in the unlikely event that the US makes major concessions to Tehran, Israel has manifold ways to stoke the flames again.

In fact, though barely reported by the western media, it is actively fuelling those fires already.

It is destroying south Lebanon, using the levelling of Gaza as the template, and preparing to annex lands south of the Litani River in accordance with its imperial Greater Israel agenda.

It is still killing Palestinians in Gaza, still shrinking the size of their concentration camp, and still blockading aid, food and fuel.

And Israel is stepping up its settler-militia pogroms against Palestinian villages in the occupied West Bank, in preparation for the ethnic cleansing of what was once assumed to be the backbone of a Palestinian state.

Sullivan, Biden’s senior adviser, noted that Israel’s vision of a “broken Iran” was not in America’s interests. It risked prolonged insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, the collapse of the global economy, and a mass exodus of refugees from the region towards Europe.

That would further deepen a European economic crisis already blamed on immigrants. It would strengthen nativist sentiment that far-right parties are already riding in the polls. It would intensify the legitimacy crisis already faced by European liberal elites, and justify growing authoritarianism.

In other words, it would foment across Europe a political climate even more conducive to Israel’s supremacist, might-is-right agenda.

Trump’s off-ramp is elusive. And Israel will do its level best to make sure it stays that way. 

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Zionism Threatens Judaism and the Existence of the State of Israel.


Dissecting the history of Israel since is creation in 1948 and the never ending wars that are a product of creating a western/European state in the the midst of the Arab and Muslim World. An excellent video.

VIETNAM, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE 2026 IRAN MEAT GRINDER: WHY OWNING THE SKY IS A DEATH TRAP

The author lives in Georgia. I am sharing for the interest of the readers. I am not familiar with the author but it's a very interesting piece.

VIETNAM, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE 2026 IRAN MEAT GRINDER: WHY OWNING THE SKY IS A DEATH TRAP—AND HOW THIS WAR WILL END AN EMPIRE

by Mark A. Shryock

on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/MarkShryockArtist

 

The history of modern warfare is defined by a persistent, expensive, and often fatal misunderstanding: the belief that controlling the sky is equivalent to winning a war. As the conflict with Iran intensifies in March 2026 (Reuters; The Guardian, March 2026 reporting), the United States is once again confronting the reality that air dominance is a tool for destruction, not a guarantee of victory. This was first etched into the American military consciousness during the Vietnam War and later reinforced during two decades of occupation in Afghanistan (RAND Corporation; SIGAR Reports). In both instances, the U.S. maintained overwhelming or absolute aerial superiority, yet failed to achieve its ultimate strategic objectives. To understand why air dominance might not matter at all in a conflict with Iran, one must look at the brutal intersection of historical failure, massive geography, and a military structure designed specifically to survive an air campaign.


The failures in Vietnam and Afghanistan provide the blueprint for why air power is a limited tool. In Vietnam, the U.S. held air supremacy over the South but faced a sophisticated, Soviet-backed Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) in the North. Between 1962 and 1973, the U.S. lost approximately 3,744 fixed-wing aircraft across all services to combat and operational causes in Southeast Asia (U.S. Air Force Historical Studies Office; Congressional Research Service; Air & Space Forces Magazine). Despite the massive tonnage of explosives dropped during operations like Linebacker II, air power could not break the political will of the North or permanently sever the Ho Chi Minh Trail (Army University Press). The canopy of the jungle and the decentralization of the enemy's logistics meant that the roof of the war was owned by the U.S., but the ground belonged to the North. Afghanistan was an even purer example of this failure. For twenty years, the U.S. held 100% air supremacy against an enemy with no air force and no radar. Yet, the Taliban simply used the terrain to wait out the clock (SIGAR). Air power is excellent at destroying static targets, but it cannot govern a population, stop a decentralized insurgency, or hold a street corner (RAND Corporation). It proved that you can own the 1% of the world that is the sky and still lose the 99% of the world that is the ground.

 

Iran, however, presents a challenge that dwarfs both Vietnam and Afghanistan due to its sheer scale and fortress geography. While Afghanistan is often cited as the ultimate mountain challenge because 75 to 80 percent of its land is mountainous, Iran is so much larger that its total mountain territory is nearly double that of Afghanistan (CIA World Factbook; Encyclopaedia Iranica). Iran covers approximately 1.65 million square kilometers, compared to Afghanistan's 652,230 square kilometers (CIA World Factbook). This means that while Iran is only 55% mountainous, it possesses roughly 906,000 square kilometers of jagged, defensible peaks—the Zagros and Alborz ranges—compared to Afghanistan's 521,000 square kilometers (derived from CIA/academic geographic data). These mountains act as a natural barrier that an invading force must breach just to reach the central plateau.



[IMAGE: Zagros Mountains landscape showing snow-capped peaks and valley approaches. Photo credit: Alireza Javaheri, CC BY 3.0]

 

Furthermore, Iran has spent decades boring into this granite. Reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Alma Research Center (2026 underground infrastructure assessments) confirm that Iran's missile cities and command centers are deeply buried in hardened rock, in some cases reported at extreme depths approaching hundreds of meters. Coalition air dominance can destroy the entrances to these tunnels, but even the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator struggles to reach assets buried under such depth (U.S. Department of Defense; Boeing technical data). You can't see through 500 feet of granite from an F-35.

 

The human element of the Iranian defense is equally daunting. Iran maintains a standing force of over one million personnel, divided between the regular army (Artesh) of 350,000, the elite Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) of 190,000, and the Basij paramilitary which has 300,000 active members and a mobilization capacity of millions (International Institute for Strategic Studies – Military Balance 2026; CSIS). This force is organized under a Mosaic Defense doctrine, which has divided the country into 31 autonomous commands (Small Wars Journal; CSIS analysis). As of the start of the 2026 campaign, these units have the authority to fight independently if the central leadership in Tehran is neutralized. This means that an air campaign designed to decapitate the government would simply result in 31 separate, well-armed wars across a million square kilometers of mountain and desert.




[IMAGE: NASA Space Shuttle photograph showing the folded ridge structure of the southern Zagros Mountains. The parallel lines of enormous hogback ridges and deep intervening valleys demonstrate the terrain that enables decentralized warfare. NASA photo STS047-151-35, public domain]

 

Air power cannot track or neutralize a million soldiers who are dispersed into small, autonomous units that are largely shielded by the radar shadows of the Zagros Mountains.

 

The tactical reality of the Strait of Hormuz turns the concept of air dominance into a liability. The Strait is a narrow chokepoint 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows (U.S. Energy Information Administration). The Zagros Mountains sit directly on the northern edge of this channel, providing Iran with a crow's nest for surveillance and a wall for hiding mobile anti-ship cruise missiles (U.S. Naval War College analysis). Iran's strategy here is one of swarming and saturation. They utilize large numbers of small fast-attack boats and low-cost suicide drones in repeated waves to overwhelm the sophisticated Aegis defense systems of U.S. Navy ships (ISW; Reuters reporting, March 2026). Confirmed reporting shows hundreds of drones used in single waves and over 1,000 drones launched within 48-hour operational windows, with more than 2,000 deployed across the theater (The Guardian; ISW; Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2026). Even with absolute air dominance, a pilot cannot hit 500 small boats and thousands of drones across compressed engagement windows in such a cramped space. When combined with the thousands of naval mines Iran has deployed—which air power is virtually useless at clearing (U.S. Naval War College)—the Strait becomes a kill zone that threatens the global economy regardless of who owns the sky. If just one tanker hits a mine, insurance rates skyrocket and the global economy takes a gut punch (Reuters; global shipping insurance data trends, March 2026).

 

Ancient and medieval history proves that the Iranian plateau is a trap designed to bleed an invader dry. Alexander the Great, despite his superior tactics and "high-tech" engineers, faced a nightmare in the Iranian heartland. In 330 BC, a small Persian force estimated at 700 to 2,000 men used the narrow mountain pass known as the Persian Gates to hold off Alexander's army of 10,000 to 17,000 troops for approximately one month using terrain advantage and enfilade attacks (Arrian, Anabasis of Alexander; Encyclopaedia Britannica; modern historical analysis).



[IMAGE: Ancient stone-paved road through narrow mountain pass in Iran. This terrain demonstrates the type of defensible chokepoint that has trapped invading armies for millennia. Photo licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0]

 

Alexander eventually won only by maneuver and local guidance; he was absorbed by the land rather than conquering it outright in a single campaign phase. When the Arab armies invaded in the 7th century, the mountains forced them to fight a separate war for every single province, taking over 20 years to control the plateau (Cambridge University Press historical studies). Even then, the Iranians ended up running the Arab empire within a century (Encyclopaedia Britannica). The 

 

Mongols similarly struggled in the jagged Alborz and Zagros mountains, and like the Arabs before them, they eventually became Persianized, with their rulers adopting Persian administrative and cultural systems (Cambridge; Britannica).

The last time Iran was fully occupied was in 1941, during the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran (Encyclopaedia Britannica; historical archives). While the Shah surrendered quickly to save his cities, the occupation triggered severe economic disruption, including inflation spikes and food shortages that led to unrest and bread riots (historical economic analyses of the 1941–1943 occupation period). The Allies withdrew by 1946 due to mounting cost and pressure.

 

THE KHARG ISLAND TRAP: WHY OCCUPATION IS A DEATH SENTENCE

As of late March 2026, the United States is confronting the exact trap that history has laid before every invader of the Iranian plateau. On March 13, 2026, U.S. forces conducted a large-scale precision bombing raid on Kharg Island, Iran's most critical oil export hub, which handles approximately 90 percent of the country's crude oil exports (NPR, March 14, 2026; Wikipedia: 2026 Kharg Island attack). The strikes destroyed more than 90 military targets including naval mine storage facilities, missile bunkers, air defenses, radar installations, and the island's airport, but deliberately spared the oil infrastructure (U.S. Central Command; SOF News, March 15, 2026; RealClearDefense, March 14, 2026). President Trump announced the strikes and warned that if Iran continued to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, he would "immediately reconsider this decision" not to destroy the oil facilities (Washington Post, March 13, 2026; NPR, March 14, 2026).

 

Within days of the bombing, reports emerged that the administration was considering a ground occupation of the island. On March 20, 2026, Axios reported that Trump was "considering blockading or occupying the island in an effort to force Iran to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz" (Axios, March 20, 2026; Wikipedia: 2026 Kharg Island attack). The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli were ordered to the Middle East, with the MEU specializing in amphibious landings, embassy security, and evacuation operations (RealClearDefense, March 14, 2026; Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2026). A White House official told the BBC that "the United States Military can take out Kharg Island at any time," while adding that Trump had "no current plans to send troops" but "retains all options as Commander-in-Chief" (Wikipedia: 2026 Kharg Island attack).

 

Kharg Island is the contemporary expression of every historical lesson in this piece. The island itself is tactically holdable. It sits 15 to 20 miles off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf, small enough to secure with a Marine Expeditionary Unit, and its military infrastructure has already been degraded by U.S. airstrikes (Wikipedia: 2026 Kharg Island attack; SOF News, March 15, 2026). American forces could land, dig in defensive positions, and control the perimeter. Air dominance over the island is absolute. But holding Kharg does not solve the strategic problem that this war has created, and in fact, it transforms U.S. forces into sitting targets for the exact asymmetric warfare documented throughout this piece.

 

The island is within range of Iranian missile, drone, and small-boat attacks launched from the mainland. As documented earlier in this analysis, Iran has demonstrated the capacity to launch hundreds of drones in single waves and over 1,000 drones within 48-hour windows, with more than 2,000 deployed across the theater (The Guardian; ISW; Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2026). Every supply ship approaching Kharg, every helicopter resupply mission, every Marine on that island becomes a target for swarm attacks from forces operating out of the Zagros Mountains visible from the shoreline. The U.S. Navy has already lost minesweepers from the region, and France's Exail company has offered to deploy 40 unmanned mine countermeasure systems just to clear the approaches (Armada International, March 2026). The Marines would be defending a static position against an enemy using mobile launch platforms hidden in mountainous terrain that air power cannot effectively suppress.

 

More critically, holding Kharg does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Even if U.S. forces occupy the island and control its oil export terminals, the tankers still have to transit the 21-nautical-mile-wide chokepoint that Iran has mined, swarmed with suicide drones and fast-attack boats, and overlooks from the Zagros range with mobile anti-ship missiles (U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Naval War College). Controlling the island does not neutralize the 31 autonomous Iranian commands dispersed across a million square kilometers of defensible terrain. It does not stop the decentralized forces that continue to operate independently even if Tehran's central leadership is destroyed. It does not force Iran to negotiate, because the strategic equation remains unchanged: the U.S. can destroy infrastructure from the air, but it cannot hold ground against a dispersed, mobilized defense without bleeding resources at an unsustainable rate.

 

Kharg Island is Alexander's Persian Gates in miniature. The U.S. can take the position with superior firepower, but holding it requires defending a narrow, exposed piece of real estate under constant attack from forces operating out of terrain that dominates the surrounding area. Alexander did not try to occupy the Persian Gates after his flanking maneuver; he passed through and kept moving because static defense in that environment is a death sentence. The difference is that the U.S. cannot "keep moving" in this war. There is no Persepolis to sack, no central capital whose fall ends the conflict. The Iranian defense is designed to survive exactly this kind of campaign, and Kharg Island is the bait in a trap that turns American technical superiority into a strategic liability.

 

As of March 27, 2026, U.S. and Israeli operations have struck more than 15,000 targets across Iran (Global Defense Corp, March 27, 2026; corroborated reporting from Reuters and WSJ), yet the Strait remains contested and restricted and Iranian forces remain entrenched and operational (Reuters; ISW, March 2026). Senator Lindsey Graham stated that "he who controls Kharg Island, controls the destiny of this war" (Tatsu Ikeda, Substack analysis, March 2026). But control is not the same as victory, and occupation is not the same as strategic success. The United States controls Kharg Island's airspace. It has demonstrated the ability to destroy its military infrastructure at will. But the moment American boots hit that ground and try to hold it, those troops become fixed targets in a war where the enemy's entire doctrine is built around bleeding a technologically superior force through attrition, terrain advantage, and decentralized command.

 

The reason the 2026 campaign is a meat grinder is that we are trying to do with jets what Alexander, the Arabs, and the Mongols tried to do with swords, and we are hitting the same three problems: the high ground, the depth of the defense, and the unsustainable cost of winning. Air dominance is a prerequisite for the fight, but history and geography show it is far from a guarantee of victory. You can own the roof, but the guy in the basement has the shotgun, and the house is made of solid rock. Kharg Island is the proof that this logic still holds in 2026, and the decision to occupy or blockade it will determine whether the United States learns the lesson that every empire before it had to learn the hard way.

 

Copyright © Mark A. Shryock — May be shared with attribution.

SOURCES AND STRATEGIC ASSESSMENTS (MARCH 2026)

U.S. Air Force Historical Studies Office

Congressional Research Service

Air & Space Forces Magazine

RAND Corporation

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction

CIA World Factbook

Encyclopaedia Iranica

Institute for the Study of War

Alma Research Center

United States Department of Defense

International Institute for Strategic Studies (Military Balance 2026)

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Small Wars Journal

U.S. Energy Information Administration

U.S. Naval War College

Reuters (March 2026 reporting)

The Guardian (March 2026 reporting)

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Cambridge University Press

Encyclopaedia Britannica

Arrian (Anabasis of Alexander)

NPR (March 14, 2026)

Wikipedia: 2026 Kharg Island attack

SOF News (March 15, 2026)

RealClearDefense (March 14, 2026)

Washington Post (March 13, 2026)

Axios (March 20, 2026)

Wall Street Journal (March 14, 2026)

Armada International (March 2026)

Global Defense Corp (March 27, 2026)

U.S. Central Command

Tatsu Ikeda (Substack analysis, March 2026)

IMAGE ATTRIBUTIONS

Mountain pass photo: Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International

Zagros landscape photo: Alireza Javaheri, Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported

NASA Zagros orbital photo: NASA Space Shuttle mission STS047-151-35, public domain

Friday, March 27, 2026

Johnathan Cook: Does the tail wag the dog? How both sides are missing the bigger picture

Does the tail wag the dog? How both sides are missing the bigger picture


Binary thinking in the argument over whether the US or Israel is driving the illegal war on Iran obscures far more than it illuminates. The truth is the dog and the tail are wagging each other

Johnathan CookeMarch 27 2026

From Johnathan Cook on Substack

The joint US-Israeli war on Iran has thrust back into the spotlight a divisive debate about whether the dog wags the tail, or the tail wags the dog. Who is in charge of this war: Israel or the United States?  

One side believes Israel lured Trump into a trap from which he cannot extricate himself. The tail is wagging the dog. 

The other believes that the US, as the world’s sole military super-power, is the one that writes the geo-strategic script. If Israel acts, it is only because it serves Washington’s interests as well. The dog is wagging the tail. 

Certainly, the idea that the tail, the client state of Israel, could be wagging the dog, the military juggernaut that is the US, seems, at best, counter-intuitive. 

But then again, there is plenty of evidence that suggests advocates for the tail wagging the dog scenario may have a case. 

They can point to the fact that Trump launched this war of choice on Iran despite winning the presidency on an “America First” platform in which he promised: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”

His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, openly stated that the administration was rushed into war, finding itself apparently unable to restrain Israel from attacking Iran. 

Jonathan Kent, Trump’s top counter-terrorism official, noted in his resignation letter that the administration “started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby”.

Addressing the Israeli parliament last October, Trump appeared to confess to being under the thumb of the Israel lobby. As he praised himself for moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the illegally occupied city of Jerusalem, he repeatedly pointed to his most influential donor, the Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson, before observing: “I actually asked her once, I said, ‘So, Miriam, I know you love Israel. What do you love more, the United States or Israel?’ She refused to answer. That means, that might mean, Israel, I must say.”

video from 2001 shows Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, caught secretly on camera, telling a group of settlers: “I know what America is. America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction. They won’t get in the way.”

Former US President Barack Obama, who ran up against Netanyahu repeatedly as Obama tried and failed to limit the expansion of Israel’s illegal settlements, thought the same. In his 2020 autobiography, he wrote that the Israel lobby insisted that “there should be ‘no daylight’ between the US and Israeli governments, even when Israel took actions that were contrary to US policy.” 

Any politician who disobeyed “risked being tagged as ‘anti-Israel’ (and possibly anti-Semitic) and confronted with a well-funded opponent in the next election”. 

Messy arrangement

But any rigid, binary way of framing the relationship between the US and Israel obscures more than it illuminates.

I addressed this issue in my 2008 book on Israeli foreign policy, titled Israel and the Clash of Civilisations: Iran, Iraq and the Plan to Remake the Middle East. My conclusion then, as now, was that the relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv was better understood in different terms: as the dog and the tail wagging each other.

What does that mean?

Israel is Washington’s most favoured client state. It must, therefore, operate within the “security” parameters for the Middle East laid down by the US.

In fact, part of Israel’s job – the reason it is such an important client state – is because it has, until now, been able to enforce those parameters on others in the region.

But the story is more complicated than that.

At the same time, Israel seeks to maximise its ability to influence those parameters in its own interests, chiefly by shaping military, political and cultural discourse in the United States, through the many levers available to it.

Zionist lobbies, both Jewish and Christian, mobilise large numbers of ordinary people to support whatever Israel claims to be in both its and US interests.

Mega-donors like Adelson use their wealth to cajole and intimidate US politicians.

Think-tanks with murky funding write legislation on Israel’s behalf that US politicians wave through.

Legal organisations, again with opaque funding, weaponise the law to silence and bankrupt.

And media owners, all too often in Israel’s camp, mould the public mood to stigmatise as “antisemitism” anything that opposes Israeli excesses.

This makes for a very messy arrangement.

Disappearing Palestinians

The trouble with the idea that the US simply dictates to Israel – rather than that the two are constantly bargaining over what constitutes their shared interests – becomes apparent the moment we consider the two-and-a-half-year genocide in Gaza.

Israel has long had a fervent desire to disappear the Palestinians, whether through ethnic cleansing or genocide.

It wants the whole of historic Palestine, and the Palestinians are an obstacle to the realisation of that goal. Should the opportunity arise, Israel is also keen to secure a Greater Israel that requires grabbing and annexing substantial territory from neighbours, particularly Lebanon and Syria – as it is doing again right now.

After the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, Israel seized on the chance to renew in earnest the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians it began in 1948, at the state’s founding.

It carpet-bombed Gaza, creating a “humanitarian crisis”, to force Egypt to open the floodgates into Sinai, where it hoped to drive the enclave’s population. Cairo refused. As a result, Israel tried to increase the pressure by slaughtering and starving the people of Gaza. In legal terms, that constituted genocide.

But the idea that the US was deeply invested in Israel carrying out a genocide in Gaza, or directed that genocide, or had any particular interest in the genocide taking place, is hard to sustain.

Washington – first under Biden, then under Trump – gave Israel cover to carry out the mass slaughter of the Palestinian population, and armed and financed the genocide. But that is very different from it having a geostrategic interest in the mass slaughter.

Rather, the US is and always has been largely indifferent as to the fate of the Palestinians, so long as they are contained. They can be locked up permanently in occupation prisons. Or ethnically cleansed to Sinai and Jordan. Or given a pretend statelet under a compliant dictator like Mahmoud Abbas. Or exterminated.

The US will bankroll whichever option Israel believes best serves its interests – so long as that “solution” can be sold by pro-Israel lobbies to western publics as a legitimate “response” to Palestinian “terrorism”.

What Israel could get away with changed on 7 October 2023. The US was prepared to approve Israel shifting from a policy of intermittently “mowing the lawn” in Gaza – short wrecking sprees – to the incremental levelling of the whole of Gaza.

In other words, Israel worked all its levers to persuade Washington that it was the right time for it to get away with genocide. It sold to the US the plan that Gaza could now be destroyed.

To present that as Washington’s plan is simply perverse. It was decisively Israel’s plan.

That doesn’t diminish in any way US responsibility for the genocide. It is fully complicit. It paid for the genocide. It armed the genocide. It must own it too.

Israeli attack dog

A similar analysis can be applied to the Iran war.

The US and Israel share the same larger policy towards Iran: they want it contained, weak, unable to exert influence. But they do so for slightly different reasons.

Israel demands to be regional hegemon in the Middle East, an invaluable client state with privileged access to Washington policymakers. Its supremacy and impunity, therefore, depend on Iran – its only plausible rival in the region – being as weak as possible and incapable of forging effective alliances with armed resistance groups such as Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Equally, Washington wants Israel unthreatened, leaving its ally free to project US imperial power into the Middle East. 

But it has a more complex set of interests to consider. It needs to ensure that the Arab monarchies remain compliant, and it does so by both wielding a stick – threatening to unleash the attack dog of Israel on them should they disobey – and proffering a carrot – promising to shield them under its security umbrella against Iran so long as they stay loyal.

The ultimate goal is to guarantee unchallenged US control over the flow of oil and thereby the global economy.

In other words, the US has to weigh far more interests in how it deals with Iran than Israel does.

Unlike Israel, Washington has to consider the effects of an attack on Iran on the global economy, to assess any impact on the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and protect against rival powers like China and Russia exploiting strategic missteps.

For those reasons, Washington has traditionally preferred maintaining a degree of stability in the region. Instability is very bad for business, as is being demonstrated only too clearly right now.

Israel, by contrast, regards its struggle against Iran in existential terms. Many in the Israeli cabinet view it as a religious war. They are not interested in simply containing Iran – a decades-old policy they believe has failed. They want Iran and its allies on their knees, or at least in so much chaos that they cannot pose any kind of challenge to Israeli regional hegemony.

That point was highlighted by Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s former national security adviser, this week in an interview with John Stewart. He cited recent comments to him by Israel’s former military intelligence lead on Iran, Danny Cintrinowicz, that Netanyahu’s aim is to “just break Iran, cause chaos”. Why? “Because,” says Sullivan, “as far as they’re concerned, a broken Iran is less of a threat to Israel.”

In other words, Israel wants to engineer instability in Iran, which is sure to spread instability across the region.

Weaving mischief

Those two agendas, as should be clear by now, are not easily compatible. Which is why Netanyahu has spent decades working every lever at his disposal in Washington to create an appetite for war.

Had war been self-evidently in US interests, his efforts would have been superfluous.

Instead Israel has had to deploy its lobbies, marshal its donors and recruit sympathetic columnists to slowly shift the public mood to the point where a war was conceivable rather patently dangerous.

And most importantly of all, Israel nurtured an intimate, ideological alliance with the neocons – hawkish, zealously pro-Israel US officials – who long ago gained a foothold in the inner sanctums of Washington.

Each recent administration has been a cat-fight over whether the neocons or more “moderate” voices would win out. Under George W Bush, the neocons dominated, leading to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Israel’s short war on Lebanon in 2006, and a failed plan to expand the war to Syria and then Iran. I documented all of this in Israel and the Clash of Civilisations.

Under Obama, the neocons were forced to take more of a back seat, which is why his administration was able to sign a nuclear deal with Iran that held until Trump ripped it up in 2018, during his first term as president. Biden, as with so much else, dithered.

In Trump’s second term, the neocons seem to be firmly back in charge, again weaving their mischief. The result – an illegal war on Iran – is likely to be a strategic catastrophe for the US, and a potential, if short-lived, victory for Israel.

Secret power

So isn’t this the same as saying the tail wags the dog?

No, not least because that assumes the visible realm of US politics – the President, the Congress, the Senate, the two main political parties – are the sole repositories of power in the system.

Even in this visible sphere, support for Israel has dramatically waned since the Gaza genocide. As the illegal war on Iran grows ever more costly, both in treasure and lives, support for Israel among US voters is going to fall off a cliff.

Israel is for the first time a deeply partisan issue, dividing Democrats and Republicans, as well as a generational divide between the young and old. It is even splitting the MAGA base Trump depends on. 

This political polarisation will continue to get much worse, ultimately freeing braver figures in US politics to start speaking out in franker terms about Israel’s nefarious role.

But power in the US isn’t just wielded at the formal, visible level. There is a permanent bureaucracy, with an institutional memory, that operates out of sight. We have gained brief glimpses of its covert operations from the work of Wikileaks, Julian Assange’s publishing platform for whistleblowers, and from Edward Snowden, the whistleblower who revealed illegal mass surveillance by the US state of its own citizens. 

Both suffered serious consequences for their efforts to bring a little transparency to a profoundly corrupt system of secret power. Assange was locked away in a London high-security prison for many years as the US sought to extradite him on trumped-up “espionage” charges, while Snowden was forced into exile in Russia to evade arrest and long-term incarceration. 

That bureaucracy – sometimes referred to as the Deep State, or the military-industrial complex – doesn’t play or fight fair. It doesn’t need to. It operates in the shadows.

Were it to so choose, it could undermine the Israel lobby, and thereby curtail Israel’s influence over the visible realm of US politics.

It could effectively do to the leaders of the lobby – AIPAC, the Anti-Defamation League, the Zionist Organisation of America, the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organisations, Christians United for Israel, and others – what it did to Assange and Snowden.

It could, for example, influence public discourse to begin questioning whether these groups are really serving US interests or acting as foreign agents. That would, in turn, free up space for the media and legislators to call for tighter restrictions on these groups’ activities, requiring them to register as such.

The permanent bureaucracy is doubtless capable of doing much darker, underhand things too. 

The fact that it hasn’t chosen to do any of this yet suggests Israel’s goals are not seen so far to be significantly in conflict with US goals. 

But that could be about to change. In fact, the current, all-too-public debates about Israel driving the US into a war against Iran – an idea already seeping into popular consciousness – may be the first salvoes in the battle to come. 

If the war on Iran turns out to be a catastrophic misstep, as it gives every appearance of being, there will be a price to pay – and leading US politicians are likely to scramble to shift the blame on to Israel. It may be that they are already getting in their excuses.

The all-too-visible freedom Israel has enjoyed in Washington to buy, bully and silence could soon become a central liability. It will not be hard to argue that a system so clearly open to manipulation that the US could be bounced into a self-sabotaging war needs to be remade, to prevent any repeat of such a disaster.

This may be the biggest lesson Washington learns from the war on Iran. That it is time to stop the tail wagging so vigorously. 

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