Venezuela: Temporary Stalemate That Will Not Last

Rally last August opposing Trump's Threats

Report by Darrall Cozens, UCU RMB delegate, for Coventry Trades Union council. 

February 11^th 2019.

 
Reprinted from LeftHorizons UK

A temporary stalemate exists in Venezuela, but by the time you read this it could have all changed. There is no doubt that the country is in a state of turmoil. The sitting president, Nicolas Maduro, was elected in May 2018 with 6.2m votes, 68% of those cast. On January 23^rd 2019 Juan Guaido, president of the National Assembly (NA), declared that he was president. It was not a surprise, as on the evening of January 22^nd, US Vice President Pence had called Guaido asking him if he wanted to be president!

We know who Maduro is, but who is Guaido? He is head of one of the opposition parties, Popular Will. He was elected from Vargas State in 2016 to the NA, coming second in the list with 97,492 votes. On January 5^th he was made President of the NA as it was the turn of his party to hold the presidency in the opposition-controlled NA. As self-proclaimed “President” of Venezuela he has been recognised by 48 countries but 141 still support Maduro.

How could it be that a relatively unknown man could declare himself President when there is already a sitting president? It could only happen in a country in turmoil and the causes of the turmoil are numerous.

There is economic collapse with massive inflation approaching a million per cent, widespread hunger and mass emigration (3 million), to escape the conditions. Some 87 per cent of people live below the poverty line – in 2015 in was 19 per cent.

Two presidents, two parliaments

There are two “parliaments” – the NA and the Constituent National Assembly (CSA) which was set up in July 2017 to revise the constitution. The opposition to Maduro controls the NA (112 seats to 55) but Maduro supporters control 503 out of 545 seats in the CSA, because most of the opposition boycotted the CSA elections.

So two presidents, two parliaments and an economy in free fall! A recipe for chaos.

How did this situation come about?

The massive programme of social reforms (misiones) – in education, health and housing - carried out by Chavez and Maduro were paid for by oil revenues. When the oil price collapsed after the 2008 world recession foreign capital dried up so the state printed money to make up the shortfall.

In addition, although sectors of the economy are in the hands of the state – electricity, cement, steel etc. – 70 per cent are in private hands, especially the food producers and distributors. The laws of the capitalist market dominate. The government freezes prices on basic goods and the large companies stop delivering to the market as it is not profitable. A massive rise in money in circulation and far fewer goods to buy only has one result – massive inflation.

There is also a lack of investment in both the state and private sectors. The government does not have capital to invest and the private sector is carrying out a flight of capital by exporting almost $300bn.

Furthermore, there are draconian sanctions against Venezuela with the USA playing the leading role. Recent sanctions will make the situation even worse. For example, the state-owned oil company PdVSA has a USA subsidiary called Citgo which receives 450,000 barrels per day from Venezuela. Its assets ($7bn) have been seized by the Trump government which will try to channel that to Guaido along with $11bn in oil revenues over the next year.

Bank of England refusing to return Venezuelan gold

The USA has sought to overthrow the Bolivarian governments since the failed CIA coup against Chavez in 2002. Since the 1824 Munro Doctrine, the USA considers Latin America to be its ‘backyard’ and it has toppled any governments it does not like.

What does it want now? Let the US National Security Adviser John Bolton gives us an answer: "It will make a big difference to the United States economically if we could have American oil companies really invest in and produce the oil capabilities in Venezuela," 

The UK too is applying sanctions. The Bank of England holds £1.2bn of Venezuela’s gold which it refuses to return. The banking institution Euroclear refuses to clear $1,2bn sent to it to buy food and medicines.

Finally, there is widespread discontent with the Maduro government. His popularity stands at 9 per cent with Guaido at 8 per cent!

The government too has proved incapable of solving the problems of the economy. The country imports 60 per cent of its food but does not have foreign reserves to pay for it. The land is very rich in productive potential but most of it is owned by large landowners who do not work the land. The government passes land reform decrees, landless labourers occupy the land and they are shot by military police (sicarios) working for the landowners.

You cannot carry out half a revolution

There is sabotage by the state machine. You cannot use the state in a capitalist society to make changes towards socialism. Chavez recognised this and tried to channel funds to local district councils to meet social needs. At each stage the bureaucracy of the state machine intervened.

You cannot carry out half a revolution as it ends in chaos. You cannot democratically plan what you don’t own and control. And democracy is also important as the lack of it in the mass workers’ party, the PSUV, leads to many electoral candidates being imposed by the party bureaucracy. This lack of democracy ends up with corruption and careerism which are widespread in the Bolivarian state.

What will the future bring?

Guaido is trying to win over the military but only a trickle of officers so far have deserted Maduro. Will that become a flood? Napoleon said an army marches on its stomach. If Maduro cannot feed the soldiers and their families, will their loyalty waver?

On Saturday February 9^th Guaido stated he might authorise a US military intervention. He was rebuked by some congressmen in the USA as only the US Congress can authorise such a move. “President” Guaido seems to think he has more power than he actually has.

There are also 1.6m armed militia, men and women, who have been trained by rank and file soldiers to defend the “project”, the Bolivarian Revolution. If the US tries to invade, Maduro has threatened a scenario worse than Vietnam!

Military intervention is no answer – Financial Times

I think the editorial in the Financial Times of November 11^th 2018 sums up very well the dilemma of the “international community”, that is Imperialism. Titled “Military intervention is no answer in Venezuela” the editorial stated that Maduro’s policies would destroy Venezuela; that the country is not Panama (which the US invaded); it is twice the size of Iraq with roughly the same population and, I quote, “it is awash with heavily armed militias”.

The Financial Times, therefore, advised caution but Trump and his allies don’t do caution.

This temporary stalemate is unstable. Eventually, one side or the other has to win out.

Any incident could set off a conflagration far worse than what happened in Chile in 1973.

To defend the Bolivarian Revolution bold socialist measures are called for.

The imperialists have seized Venezuelan assets so all the assets of multinationals in Venezuela should also be seized.

Nationalise the large monopolies and the land under democratic workers’ control and management. Democratically develop a national plan of production to meet people’s needs.

Call on the world-wide labour and trade union movement to deliver fraternal aid to resolve the immediate crisis, not the Trojan horse of the so-called humanitarian caravans.

Revolutionary committees should be established within the army by revolutionary soldiers and officers to keep an eye on the coup plotters and waverers who might be bought off by imperialism. This is the only way forward.

The continuation concessions and compromises to the ruling class, which have already led the Bolivarian movement to a cul-de-sac, would be suicidal and pave the road for defeat.

At the same time, a powerful, international, anti-imperialist solidarity movement needs to be raised across the world. The fight of the Venezuelan masses is our fight.

Do not let Venezuela become another Chile! No coup: Hands off Venezuela!