Sunday, April 5, 2015

IRAN/US NEGOTIATIONS. Splits in US Ruling Class.

By Sean O'Torrain

One of the problems for those of us who oppose capitalism is trying to figure out what is going on in the camp of the enemy, the capitalist class. We do not have intimate access to the top strata of the bourgeois. Even their more authoritative media which they aim to some extent at their  own class is limited in what it makes available. While the exposures by people like Snowden and Assange and Manning are helpful there is still the problem of trying to follow the day to day struggles in the ruling class. When we add on to this the increasing splits in the US political class things get even more difficult. Take the Iran US nuclear negotiations. The framework of a deal has been agreed. This is not surprising since all 16 US intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran abandoned its active nuclear weapons program in 2003. The intelligence service of the  semi crazed Zionist bully Netanyahu also states that it does not agree with him that Iran is near having its own nuclear bomb. Netanyahu has been saying that Iran is near having a bomb for the past 23 years. The Zionist intelligence agency saying that Iran has stopped any active bomb program has not stopped the Zionist  regime murdering Iranian nuclear scientists. Nor does it result in them admitting to their own nuclear stockpile. Something that is never mentioned by the imperialist countries.

But back to these negotiations and what is going on within the US capitalist class and its political parties and factions. There are deep splits in this class. The big bourgeois if we can call them that, that is the most conscious and and balanced and determined of the US capitalist class want a deal. The framework agreement and the coming months of negotiations on details do and will reflect this. This section of the US capitalist class are represented by people like Obama, Kerry and grey eminences such as top lawyer and strategist James Baker. This section of the US capitalist class do not want a new war in the Middle East, one that would block the Straits of Hormuz and plunge the world into a deep slump. Never mind what it would mean to US capitalism's relations with the other imperialist powers and the masses in the Middle East. So on balance it is most likely the next three months will see the details of a deal worked out and the threat of war with Iran pushed to the background.

BUT. BUT. There is usually always a but. US capitalism increasingly faces splits and lunatic forces with influence in its political parties, both the Democrats and the Republicans. But especially the Republicans with its mad Tea Bag wing, sorry Tea Party wing. And its candidates such as Cruz, and its leaders in the House and Senate who pander to these idiots. These people do not represent the best interests of US imperialism. The big bourgeois will take them on and seek to put them in their place and force them to accept a deal with Iran. But and this is where the BUT comes in. They may not be able to. These forces are very strong in the Republican Party base. Any candidate which wants to get the Republican Party nomination has to cater to them. So it is not totally excluded that these forces can block a deal with Iran. The result would be an end to the sanctions as the other imperialist powers which along with the US have been and are applying the sanctions would pull out, and Russia and China would most likely step up to supply Iran. In this situation it could not be excluded that the Zionist regime would take military action against Iran and its 70 million people. If we think the Middle East is bad now think what it would be like then. So on balance it is most likely that the nut cases and the Zionists in the US and in Israel will be brought to heal and go along with a deal with Iran. But we live in very volatile times, with many semi insane and desperate actors, so we have to be very conditional in what we predict.

I do not have time to go into it now but there is also the coming next economic recession in the US and world wide, there is also the coming new uprising of the US working class against the move by the US capitalist class to step up its attempts to put them on rations. It is hard to think of a time of greater volatility. And while we are thinking of this consider the one about the dog that did not bark. There are 200 million workers organized in trade unions. Half the factory workers in the world are women. When was the last time we heard anything of relevance from the leaders of the international trade union movement. The working class is not fighting as a class. This is because of the role of the trade union leaders. They are the most pathetic and useless and pro-capitalist union leadership in a century. A new leadership will have to be constructed from the ground up.

No comments: