October 6, 2014
Dan Armstrong in Germany
Normally referred to as the engine of the European economy, the latest
figures for the German economy are sobering. The normal complacency
concerning the economy could well give way to a more strident approach
by government.
Up until now, the new coalition of
CDU/SPD has enjoyed relatively broad support. The bourgeoisie have
praised the aim of balancing the books and foresaw revenues actually
exceeding expenditure within a year or two which of course would mean a
reduction in the debt service charges. And the labour movement has been
mainly quiet since last December when the Grand Coalition came into
office, primarily because the SPD ministers fought for and won several
concessions and reforms on pensions, benefits and mainly the
introduction of a legal minimum wage across all industries.
Polls
reflected this situation with the CDU/CSU stable at around 40-42%,
boosted by the collapse of the Free Democrats, and the SPD on a low
23-24%. The Linke has made no headway for a long time now, having lost
seats in four western parliaments and were badly weakened in Brandenburg
because of their collusion with the SPD in budget cuts but have hung on
to support in the east in Saxony and Thuringia where they are the
biggest party and may even enter a coalition with the junior SPD; in
Thuringia however the Linke led by the devout Christian Ramelow is
programmatically indistinguishable from the social democrats with only a
timid programme of more teachers and more police.
Under
the quiet surface, there has been an erosion of benefits, growth of
food banks, moonlighting jobs, and so on. The lowest layers and some
nationally orientated bourgeois forces are finding expression on the
right with this new party, the AfD, picking up 7-10% of the votes in
regional elections on an anti-Euro and anti-migrant platform. The AfD
has been taking votes in almost equal numbers from all the other
parties, including the from Linke.
But
politics rests of course on economics. And the second quarter of this
year saw an actual fall in GDP by 0.2%, the opposite of what the experts
had been predicting. Worse, today's figures for the third quarter show a
crumbling of industrial orders by 5.7%, the biggest fall since the
crash of 2009 and foreign orders declining by a huge 8.4%. Machine tools
and vehicles suffered even worse, dropping by 8.5%. This is due to
three factors: the stagnation in the Eurozone, the poor growth in the
BRIC countries once hailed as the saviours of the west, and the
political crisis continuing in Ukraine.
Since
no changes in any of these three areas is in sight, we can expect the
beginnings of a revival in the activities in the German labour movement
in the next period.
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