Thursday, October 30, 2008

Along with the stick, what carrots will the Democrats throw out?

Assuming the Democrats win the US presidential election we have to consider how far Barak Obama will go to introduce some sort of reforms along the lines of those introduced by Roosevelt. There is no doubt that the next administration will carry out the agenda of the capitalist class and savage workers and youth but there is also tremendous pressure from below for them to produce something and they cannot completely ignore this. It does not seem likely that Obama will simply announce that his program and promises have to be abandoned to save the system; and that they will be forced to prodcuce something and I don't mean reforming the financial system.

We had talked about, the level of reforms in response to pressure from below at an earlier stage when Clinton was saying she would rein in the traders and speculators etc. I heard today that Obama has 200,000 volunteers on the ground in Florida alone, the millions of people, young people and black folks in particular have some expectations.

It seems to me that initially they will probably make some reforms to the health system in the US which is one of the worst in the industrialized world. They will curb some of the excesses of the speculators and the hedge fund guys though we won't get ourt money back. They will pass this piece of legislation to pacify the labor leaders, the Employee Free Choice Act. The Labor leaders are no threat at this point as they will not object to the layoffs and concessions that they will help foster on their members. The probable increase in Union membership that the EFCA will bring will mean more dues money (revenue to the Labor leadership) and increased votes for the Dems.

Perhaps there will be some relief for homeowners in the early stages also

I haven't given this much thought other than to raise what I have here, the level of reform. One thing is certain is that in very short order the effects of this histroic crisis will bring massive job losses and further attacks, particularly on the youth, the elderly and the least organized among us. They have a two trillion dollar loan to pay back using our money. Here in Ausrtralia they expect double digit unemployment early next year.

I read also that the Russians and Chinese and possibly India are considering shifting from the dollar block to a certian degree to increase their options; that remains to be seen. The US still has about 25% of the world's wealth and is wounded but still a significant economic force to be reckoned with. The slowdown in US consumption is forcing the Chinese in particular to try develop its home market more, how far that can go remains to be seen.

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