The U.S Has Already Declared a Trade War With China. What's Next?

View from the other side.

 

Richard Mellor

Afscme Local 444, retired

GED/HEO

3-6-23

 

Has the reader noticed that when it comes to our media in the U.S., tensions are always rising with China. Without this daily dose of information based on U.S. state department dispatches, the average US worker would have no idea that tensions were rising with China. The billionaire owners of US corporations that invest in China, taking advantage of a dictatorial regime that forbids independent trade unions that ensure labor is cheap, don’t let “tensions” worry them too much.

For US workers and the middle class, our lack of public transportation, our inability to get our teeth fixed or our general lack of affordable health care, the homelessness, the cost of education and many other issues, we do not immediately associate with China.  Why should we, China is not the cause of this sad situation.

 

Yet there is currently a war between the United States and China but it is a trade war, a war for the control of markets, access to raw materials and of course, profits. It’s being fought and aggressively pursued by US capitalism, sanctioning Chinese individuals and Chinese manufacturing.

 

It has been going on for some time. The arrest of Meng Wanzou, Huawei’s CFO and daughter of the company’s founder,  for bank fraud and violating US sanctions against Iran, was part of this war. US capitalism does not like other countries doing business with countries it is in conflict with.

 

Now the US is considering banning Tik Tok, the social media company owned by the Chinese. There are also concerns being voiced over the huge cranes that we see in California ports that were built in China, China makes almost all of the world’s new shipping containers and builds many of the world’s ports. Apparently the Chinese could be getting important information from technology hidden in the cranes.
 

The Chinese claim that concerns about the cranes is “paranoia-driven” much like the stupid balloon affair.  It is an, “…attempt to obstruct trade and economic cooperation with China.“ a Chinese Embassy spokesperson in Washington told the Wall Street Journal

 

This developing situation reminds me of a book I once read about the events that led to the surprise bombing of Pearl Harbor by the Japanese. I understood that to be a surprise but there’s more to it. We must start first from the understanding that Japan imported most of its needs to maintain a modern industrial nation and, like all capitalist states was also in competition for influence in the world market with other established European nations, especially for influence in East Asia.Let's not forget that Japan was the only non European colonial power that defeated a European nation in warfare when it bested Russia in 1905.

 

So US imperialism was competing with its Japanese rival for dominance in the Pacific, to contain this competitor much like it is doing with China today. The US and its western allies, was starving Japan of resources:

 

“On July 2, 1940, Roosevelt signed the Export Control Act, authorizing the President to license or prohibit the export of essential defense materials.” Under this authority, “[o]n July 31, exports of aviation motor fuels and lubricants and No. 1 heavy melting iron and steel scrap were restricted.” Next, in a move aimed at Japan, Roosevelt slapped an embargo, effective October 16, “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the Western Hemisphere.” Finally, on July 26, 1941, Roosevelt “froze Japanese assets in the United States, thus bringing commercial relations between the nations to an effective end. One week later Roosevelt embargoed the export of such grades of oil as still were in commercial flow to Japan.”[2] The British and the Dutch followed suit, embargoing exports to Japan from their colonies in southeast Asia. https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=1930

 

So some might say that Japan was in an untenable position as a capitalist nation, wanting like all capitalist states do, to increase it’s sphere of influence in its periphery. Understanding this makes Pearl harbor no surprise at all. One could say that it was the inevitable response to the possibility of being brought to its knees by other means.

 

The US welcomed the collapse of the old Soviet Union and the shift toward a market economy in China. But the desire was access to markets including labor power; a dependent nation was the preferred result, not a competitor. But China, and to as lesser extent, Russia and India, are a threat to the decades’ old dominance of US imperialism on the world stage. US Secretary of Defense Anthony Blinken has admitted that the US goal in Ukraine is to weaken Russia so that the US can shift its focus toward China. One wouldn’t have to be one of CNN’s experts to wonder why China would not aid Russia given the situation.

 

The reluctance of the former colonial countries, or what were referred to as the Non-Aligned, to outright condemn Russia and turn their backs on China and at least appear neutral is an aspect of this changed world situation. It is as much a tectonic shift that are results of earthquakes and there is without doubt, a possibility of a tsunami in the process.

 

Are we seeing the same scenario developing between China and the US that we saw in the period leading up to World War Two? There are many differences, globalization, the end of the Stalinist states, the existence of nuclear weapons and so on. But the Russia/ Ukraine war is bringing about increased defense spending in Europe (a bizarre situation where the UK and Poland are calling for a more militarized Germany) and China just last week announced a 7.2% increase in defense spending at last week’s National People’s Congress (NPC). 

 

This, the Chinese say, comes in the wake of constant US provocations and threats of potential war with the world’s second largest economy. Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang told the NPC that "external attempts to suppress and contain China are escalating" The US still spends more than four times what China does on the arms industry but it’s not a good sign. Incidentally, the US mass media calls the National People's Congress, a rubber-stamp parliament, which it may well be but it’s somewhat hypocritical coming from representatives of a body politic that is facing intense social, political and economic crises and that is totally owned and operated by billionaires.

 

In 1999 I was in Skopje Macedonia. I was last there when Macedonia was a province of Yugoslavia, in 1971. I was visiting an old friend who lived near the Albanian border. The last night I spent in Skopje staying at a hotel. For the ride to the airport the next morning I decided I would approach the numerous cabbies that were lined up outside the hotel, they were much cheaper than the cabbies the hotel recommended.

 

This was a mistake.

 

The next morning I went down to the car at the front of the line and told the driver I needed to go to the airport. He agreed so I threw my backpack in the back and got in. After a while, I realized there were no planes in sight, no airport, just country roads. I made an attempt to communicate better in case he misunderstood me by waving my hands in the air simulating wings. He seemed to nod in agreement but as we turned passed a gas station on the corner and headed down some country road toward what looked like a barn at the end, I started to panic. I could die here I thought; Macedonia was a poor country.

 

I sat there for a moment and tried to convince myself that I should hit him right now before it’s too late and I almost did; it’s not like me. But he stopped and I told him to let me out. I made sure to grab my luggage and took off running back to the gas station. No one spoke English except one motorist who understood that I needed to catch a plane and was desperate.  My last experience was heartwarming as he took me to the airport and I gave him my last 800 Dinar. Maybe, in a small way I was in the same position as Japan was back then, hit first or die.

 

Let’s hope that history is not repeating itself here.