From Richard Evans
Member Birmingham Selly Oak
CLP
We are witnessing
extraordinary events unfolding in the UK; the unravelling at the seams of the
British Conservative Party. The most successful party in British history. One,
which was founded on the Burkean principle of slow change and against
radicalism ; and which had learnt the lesson in the mid-nineteenth century of
never splitting. Now, over the question of Brexit have transformed themselves
into a narrow right wing English nationalist party. Boris Johnson, in a move
that would have sent Burke spinning in his grave, has staked everything on a
strategy of calling a general election to force through a hard neo-liberal
Brexit, expelling those Tory MPs who are opposed. He is gambling that he could
withstand the loss of seats in Scotland and metropolitan England by winning a
populist campaign in the ex-industrial small towns of 'rust-belt'
England.
This week, as Parliament
reconvened after the summer recess, one Tory MP theatrically crossed the floor
of the House of Commons as Johnson was speaking; 22 further Tory MPs, including
two former Chancellors, voted against the Prime Minister and were summarily
expelled from the Tory Party; and then, Jo Johnson, the PM's brother, resigned
as a minister and will not contest the next election because he was "torn
between the national interest and famial loyalty".
The stakes couldn't be higher
in the coming election. A Johnson victory would mean a hard neo-liberal Brexit
and Britain being drawn into the vassalage of a Trumpian United States with
workers' and consumer' rights being shredded by a cabinet that is further to
the right than any of Thatcher's. A victory for Labour would bring a left wing
Corbyn government.
The crisis in the Tories has
been coming since the referendum. Only the hardest of Brexits will satisfy the
reactionary membership of the Tory party which selects the Prime Minister.
Theresa May was unable to get a Brexit deal through Parliament, blocked by her
own right wing, who favour crashing out of the EU rather than seeking a
negotiated exit with a transitional period. Johnson took over as PM, on the
vote of Tory party members by promising to leave the EU on 31st October, deal
or (more likely) no-deal.. The economic shock of crashing out, that would have
been considered lunacy a couple of years ago, has now become the favoured
policy of the Tory government.
Johnson's tactic was to
rundown the clock by holding phoney negotiations with the EU by setting prior
conditions which were impossible to meet, even suggesting that Ireland re-enter
the UK trading block to prevent a hard border. When the charade would have
finished at the European Council on 17th October, it would have been too late
for MPs to block a no-deal Brexit and Britain would automatically crash out as
the Article 50 deadline expired. To achieve this goal, the government was
prepared to prorogue (suspend) Parliament for 5 weeks to prevent MPs from
meeting.
When Parliament returned this
week, opposition MPs with Tory rebels seized hold of the Parliamentary agenda
(under House of Commons rules, the government normally controls the business of
Parliament) to pass a law instructing the government to apply for an extension
to Article 50 if no deal has been reached by 19th October.. Johnson, on being
defeated, then called for a general election ; but because of the Fixed Term
Parliaments Act, it is no longer in the gift of the PM to automatically call an
election, as two thirds of MPs must agree. Labour abstained and won't agree to
an election until no-deal has been legally ruled out. Johnson has become the
first Prime Minister in history to lose his first three votes in
Parliament.
The election will take place.
The only question is the date - before or after the end of October and an
Article 50 extension (there is still a small chance of a deal and Brexit on
31st October if the government pulls back from its position or a new government
takes its place - but there would still be an election sooner rather than
later). Labour will need to fight the election on a strong remain platform
(probably for a second referendum) linked to ending austerity and reversing privatisation.
There will probably be large scale tactical voting between Labour and the
Liberal-Democrats as voters look to defeat the Tories. The Scottish National
Party will probably take seats from both Labour and the Tories. It promises to
be the most important election since 1979 and the most brutal since the
war.
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