We share this analysis of the current attack on Syria from
the UK
Website, Left Horizons
for the interest of our readers. It was written published on
the eve of the actual attack.
Editorial: No support for US-UK-France bombing of Syria
The threatening escalation of the war in Syria, by means of
American, French and British air strikes, is a matter of grave concern to
socialists everywhere. The Labour leadership must vigorously oppose Theresa
May’s stampede to support Donald Trump, who seems determined to exacerbate an
already complex and bloody war in Syria.
Syria has been devastated in the last seven years; it is an
arena for a series of interconnected and sometimes contradictory proxy wars,
involving the armed forces of Russia, Turkey, Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, Israel,
USA and the UK, as well as ISIS, Syrian Kurdish forces and the Syrian
government itself. In many parts of Syria, armies are fighting over rubble and
the wrecked remains of what used to be cities, towns and villages.
The losers in the conflict, and always the last
consideration in the minds of international politicians (despite their pious
rhetoric), are the terrorised civilian population of that country. The Syrian
war has cost half a million civilian deaths and at least double that number of
injured. From a pre-war population of around 22 million, more than 6 million
are internally displaced and around five million are refugees outside of Syria,
half of them in Europe. The United Nations estimates that as many as 13.5
million are in need of humanitarian assistance. Further bombing and intervention
by US and British forces will do nothing, except prolong the agony for the mass
of the Syrian population.
Socialists do not support the murderous regime of Bashir
al-Assad. He took over a personal dictatorship from his father, Hafez al-Assad,
‘inheriting’ a regime built on terror and state oppression. The father was no
less vicious than the son is today, suppressing any opposition with the full
force of a military-police state. In 1982, for example, an uprising in the town
of Hama was crushed after an army siege of 27 days. Some reports put the number
of deaths at as many as 20,000. Any socialist daring to be active in Syria
today would be risking immediate imprisonment, with the possibility of torture
or murder in one of Bashir al-Assad’s many prisons.
Since coming to power, the Syrian Baath Party has based its
power on the minority Alawite population, with a disproportionate number of
them in key positions in the Baath Party, the armed forces and the state
apparatus. It was no surprise that when the ‘Arab Spring’ erupted in 2011, the
majority Sunni population expressed an aspiration for greater freedom and
opportunity. By ruthlessly suppressing the incipient Sunni opposition movement
in 2011, Assad laid the basis for the rise of ISIS a few years later.
Assad is winning on the ground
In the last two years, Assad has been winning the war
against ISIS, thanks largely to military support from Russia and Iran, backed
on the ground by the Shiite Lebanese Hezbollah militia. Both Russia and Iran
have supported Syria only as a means of enhancing their own military-strategic
influence in the region. The increasing influence of Iran (in Iraq too) and its
support for Hezbollah, has also drawn Israel into the war. In the last few
years, Israel has made over a hundred air raids aimed at Iranian and Hezbollah
targets in Syria.
Another important component in wearing down the ISIS
military machine has been the intervention of Syrian Kurdish militias, backed
to some degree by the US military. But adding a further complication to the
war, the success of the Kurdish militia is bitterly resented by the Turkish
government to the north. Turkey has therefore been drawn into the conflict,
invading and occupying parts of northern Syria, for fear that an autonomous –
and armed – Kurdish enclave in Syria would ignite the national aspirations of
Kurds living in Turkey. Last but not least, and largely hidden from any media
attention, American and British ‘special forces’ are on the ground in Syria,
working with armed groups that are fighting against Assad’s regime or against
ISIS.
But as much as socialists must oppose the brutal regime of
al-Assad, we can give no support whatsoever to a US, French and British bombing
campaign, which now looks increasingly likely. America is still the world’s
greatest military super-power, with a capability greater than the next three or
four states put together. Nor is it just a question of the number of
planes and warships; the American military is technologically far
superior to its global rivals. Trump’s boasts, therefore, about ‘new’ and
‘smart’ missiles are not entirely empty. The US military capability is more
than a match for both the Syrian and Russian forces in the region.
But the irony is that this huge US military advantage masks
a long and inglorious decline in the political and strategic influence of the
USA in this part of the world. Six years after Obama declared that “Assad has
to go”, the Syrian president is in a stronger position than ever before and he
will not be weakened one jot by more American missiles. As Edward Luce wrote in
the Financial Times, “If you want a glimpse of a post-American world,
look at Syria.”
Trump’s prime consideration – and we might also add, that of
Macron and Theresa May – is domestic politics. In ordering new missile
strikes in Syria, they are pushing the right buttons for their political
support at home.
The Immediate pretext for airstrikes is the alleged use of
poison gas against the population of Douma by the Syrian government last
week. But this, in reality is only a pretext. The US and British
governments will never let any facts stand in the way of a good story. A year
ago, in an identical narrative, an alleged poison gas attack at Khan
Sheikhoun was the pretext for a missile attack on a Syrian air base. But
now, according to the American Newsweek magazine, the US Secretary of
Defence, Mattis, has admitted that there is no evidence that Syria was
responsible for that gas attack.
According to the Newsweek correspondent, a White House Memorandum on that attack “seemed to rely heavily on testimony from the Syrian White Helmets who were filmed at the scene having contact with supposed Sarin-tainted casualties and not suffering any ill effects”. (Newsweek, February 8, 2018). Other journalists, a little less ‘embedded’ in British and American government propaganda machines, have pointed out that ISIS itself has a track-record of using gas. It has also been pointed out, by Peter Ford, the former British ambassador to Syria no less, (on BBC Radio and TV) that the Syrian regime has no incentive to use poison gas when it was winning the war on the ground and the use of gas was only likely to provoke the reaction that it has. He further pointed out that the main evidence for the gas attack has come from jihadi groups who have beheaded and burnt prisoners to death.
Of course, it is possible that the Syrian government did
use poison on the residents of Douma last week. They are certainly capable of
doing it. But we also know that the British and American governments are
capable, where no evidence exists, of manufacturing it. After all, the
invasion of Iraq by US and Britain in 2003 was based on a mountain of lies. We
all remember Colin Powell, US Secretary of State, speaking in the United
Nations about Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction.” We remember, too,
Tony Blair telling the British House of Commons that Iraqi missiles could reach
London in 40 minutes.
War in Iraq launched on mountain of lies
That war cost millions in lost Iraqi lives and injuries.
Untold damage was done to the Iraqi infrastructure and economy, damage from
which it will take decades to recover. Hundreds of American and British service
personnel gave their lives. And for what? For lies. For oil, and for the
hundreds of billions of dollars of profits for the military-industrial complex.
Iraq was so shattered by the 2003 invasion and its new ‘constitution’ so rigged
along rigid sectarian lines, that this country too, like Syria after 2011, was
a fertile ground for the rise of ISIS within its Sunni population.
We take no lessons in righteous indignation, therefore, from
Theresa May and Donald Trump over the deaths of civilians in Douma. We cannot
help noticing that there has been no righteous indignation over the persistent
bombing of civilians in Yemen by the Saudis, with arms and logistical support
provided by the West. Neither has there been any government or media outrage
about Israel deploying snipers, to fire live rounds at unarmed Palestinians in
Gaza.
Although a new American missile attack on Syria now seem
inevitable, it is not likely that it will lead to a generalised conflict and
certainly not to a major military conflict between the USA and Russia. Despite
all the Twitter bellicosity of Trump, echoed by comments of Russian officials
from time to time, a US strike will not trigger a war between the super-powers.
It is likely that the missile attack on Syria will be limited. The USA has the
capability of completely wiping out the Syrian air force. Even the Israelis – a
small state in terms of population, but a regional military super-power – could
eliminate the Syrian air-force in a day. But this scenario is not likely to
happen, because, despite its military superiority, the USA does not want to
push the Russians into such a tight corner that they will be obliged to rearm
Syria – as they would – with even more modern aircraft and weapons.
For their part, the Russians can see that their influence and prestige in the region are on the rise, corresponding those of the US, which are on the wane. Russia has no reason to provoke a major military confrontation with the USA at present and they will quietly move their planes and ships out of harm’s way until the immediate crisis is over. They are content, instead, to play the long game and be a minor irritant in the short term.
Having said all that, we live in a period of unprecedented
social and political upheaval, and the dominant characteristic of the age is volatility.
A major conflagration may be very unlikely, but it can never be completely
ruled out that an unexpected combination of ‘accidental’ factors – not least
the unpredictability of the loose cannon who occupies the White House – may
trigger a conflict on a much wider scale than either side originally
anticipated.
Labour must strenuously oppose the Tories’ rush to war in
Syria. Bombing Assad’s air-bases will inevitably result in even more
civilian 'collateral' deaths so it will do absolutely nothing to help
the civilian population of Syria or undermine al-Assad. More bombs and missile
attacks will only prolong the agony of the Syrian population. The Labour Party
should demand that if the British Government does anything in Syria, it should
be sending boatloads of humanitarian aid and making good on its empty promise
to take child refugees.
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