from Dan Armstrong in Germany
The last leader of the German Social Democratic Party,
SPD to proclaim his humble, working-class origins, was Gerhard Schroeder. The
same Schroeder who embraced neo-liberal ideas, led a frontal attack on the
well-developed system of social security, savagely cut unemployment and welfare
payments to "improve incentives for capital to invest and modernise"
and during this process caused half a million Social Democratic workers and
trade unionists to leave the party in disgust and millions more voters to
abandon their traditional voice.
One incidental effect was to strengthen the nascent left reformist party Die Linke which has since then competed with the SPD for votes. On Sunday 19th March, a new leader of the SPD was elected, unanimously, Martin Schulz. While party members are euphoric and the party's popularity has shot up to equal that of Merkel's CDU, what differences, if any, will follow from Schulz's election as party chairman and candidate for Chancellor at the September General Election?
One incidental effect was to strengthen the nascent left reformist party Die Linke which has since then competed with the SPD for votes. On Sunday 19th March, a new leader of the SPD was elected, unanimously, Martin Schulz. While party members are euphoric and the party's popularity has shot up to equal that of Merkel's CDU, what differences, if any, will follow from Schulz's election as party chairman and candidate for Chancellor at the September General Election?
Until recently, the share of the vote for the SPD
slumped year on year several percent so that by the end of 2016 the party could
only command 19 and 20%. After a good
initial showing of 11-12%, the Linke has mainly stagnated over recent years, failing
to appeal to the mass of workers and left voters, unable to produce political
programmes which offered little more than demanding more teachers and opposing
increases in military spending. It now receives around 6-7% in many regions,
more in the east, but importantly has lost parliamentary seats in numerous
states and seems to be having difficulties in the elections pending in
industrial Northrhine Westfalia, hovering around the 5% minimum threshold vote.
For many years, the SPD has been in government
coalition in Berlin as a junior partner with the CDU/CSU. Their record has not
been entirely negative. Using their few ministries, the SPD pushed through a
universal minimum wage, an affordable house-building programme and so on which
have been well received by workers’ organisations.
Meanwhile the German economy has been slowly
struggling out of the recession of 2008 and is now performing better than most
capitalist countries in the EU. The budget cuts for public services been less
than in other countries but have been enough to turn the deficit into a
surplus, a rare event in the EU. Leaning on the growth, a whole number of
unions in metal-working and logistics industries, for example, have pushed
through long-overdue wage rises of 4-5%, each success emboldening further
layers of the working class.
Growth
of a new right wing
The massive influx of refugees from the Middle East
was met with contradictory views. Big corporations and strategists of
capitalists saw the influx as a welcome potential for meeting labour shortages
and, once integrated, for refreshing pensions funds etc. Smaller localised
firms plus many of the depressed badly-paid layers or unemployed fearful that
their conditions could worsen, resented the influx. The anti-Euro and anti EU
grouping of the AfD split several times and lined up with radical rightwing
grouplets whose numbers were swelled through mass anti-immigrant demonstrations
so that the AfD is now looking at entering many if not all regional parliaments
with 10-12%, eclipsing the Linke and often the Greens too.
Decline
of Merkel's Centre
Many of the capitalist, liberal and left forces on a
continental scale became alarmed at this revival of protectionism and
xenophobia although many wily conservatives understand the usefulness of an
ethnically divided working class. At the same time, the rightwing groups conjured
up the spectre of the "threat from the east". The CDU's sister party in Bavaria, the CSU,
departed from the liberal line of Merkel and demanded an imposition of numerical
limits on immigrants. Such a demand is against the German constitution which
guarantees refugees the right of admission. This split inside the dual
conservative party led to the growth of the AfD and also to the decline
Merkel's popular support as the Mother of the Nation. Previously running at
over 40% of voters, the CDU/CSU began a steep decline down to the low 30
percent. In addition, the number of
non-voters increased from election to election.
At this juncture of events, the left organised resistance
in the form of counter demonstrations and public protest, usually in grassroots
and ad hoc groups which have been able to come together to stage impressive
public showings of a refusal to accept the rightward drift. In half a dozen
countries, popular movements with vague catalogues of mostly anti-capitalist
aims sprang up. In Germany there had already been quite a long history of mass
antifascist blockades whenever tiny neo Nazi groups marched or held rallies.
Following the British exit from the EU and several ominous anti-democratic
measures taken in eastern and central Europe, millions on the left asked
themselves what the future may bring - time to resist or time to retreat? The
American left displayed admirable and innovative forms of protest against the
rightward slide under Trump. Perhaps it was these protests which encouraged the
working class movement to seek a new course in the early months of 2017.
Opinion polls began to reflect this shift and the SPD began to increase its
support significantly.
The
arrival of Martin Schulz
And so came the change bringing in Schulz. The leading
figures in the SPD hardly differ from each other in any significant way. The
term of office of President Gauck was to fortuitously expire in March 2017; the
SPD, embedded in a government coalition with the CDU/CSU, put forward one of
its party leaders, Steinmeyer, to stand for the post. Steinmeyer, previously
foreign minister was a close accomplice of Gerhard Schroeder's reactionary
economic and social policies and the rightwing coalition partners could hardly
object to his becoming head of state. Thus began the game of musical chairs.
Steinmeier moved from the Foreign Minister to the President, the chairman of
the party and putative Chancellor candidate Sigmar Gabriel was chosen to become
Foreign Minister in Steinmeyer's place.
The post of party chairman and combined with it the Chancellor candidate, became vacant. Gabriel had no chance of winning and stepped down. Opinions were canvassed and a candidature of Martin Schulz for these two posts was mooted and found favour with the establishment. Week by week his popularity was stoked until a campaign for "Martin", by now called only by his first name, was in full flow. Now at the Special Conference of the SPD, a massive delegate vote has taken place and Schulz received unanimous support. Schulz, unlike any possible rivals, does not belong to the established SPD leadership. He progressed through local politics and then entered the EU parliament and although he did support Chancellor Schroeder's neo-liberal policies, this was hardly noticed because his base was in Brussels.
For the moment Schulz is riding a wave of popularity
in both the party and in the general public not seen since the time of Willy
Brandt in the 1970s. The SPD support rose from a weak 20% to 25 then 30, now
33%, neck and neck with the once powerful CDU/CSU. In 1972 Brandt enthused
young and old, workers and students, was elected as the first socialdemocratic
Chancellor under the non-political slogan: "Willy waehlen - Vote for
Willy" and the SPD became the
biggest fraction in parliament for the first time ever. Brandt campaigned for a
controlled decline in heavy industry and cushioned those workforces with planned
redundancies and rundowns. Workers participation and a more open attitude to
Eastern Europe completed the reform image.
Similarly Schulz' supporters are personalising the SPD
image asking for a vote for Martin. Schulz was elected with the simplest and
non-specific platform: defence of the EU, more equality, justice and respect.
He scattered in a few possible promises such as free education for all from the
kindergarten to the university, extension of unemployment pay, and so on.
In the hope of a fresh breeze, there is a swelling
enthusiasm for the party, at the time of writing a growth in membership of
13,000 (out of 450,000). There are still six months until the General Election
in September 2017. Meanwhile several regional elections will deliver a running
commentary on developments. In the summer, the SPD congress will decide on its
electoral programme. So far we have
heard no policies to combat temporary employment, acute housing shortages in
the big cities, measures to renew crumbling infrastructure, etc. An SPD
president and chancellor would embolden the labour movement to press their
demands.
There is no question: an SPD revival is underway. For the first time in a generation there is a realistic hope of renewing an SPD government. The tiny Linke meanwhile is still failing to attract more support; some sectarians in its ranks are already denouncing Schulz, saying that he is no different from previous SPD leaders and that he will betray. These tiny "purist" forces sound shrill in the face of groundswell of rank and file support for the traditional party of the workers' movement.
One of the main demands of the Schulz campaign is, for example, to combat inequality. It will be a simple matter to show and explain how to combat the gulf in incomes and how to redistribute them by intervention in the large firms. By denouncing the SPD now will surely demoralise many potential supporters as they will understand this as a call to give up the fight. The left can try to extend the minimal programme of the SPD and show the need for action against the forces of capital. It will be necessary to try to gather the forces for a new left wing in the SPD and bring them together with solid working class militants in the Linke.
There is no question: an SPD revival is underway. For the first time in a generation there is a realistic hope of renewing an SPD government. The tiny Linke meanwhile is still failing to attract more support; some sectarians in its ranks are already denouncing Schulz, saying that he is no different from previous SPD leaders and that he will betray. These tiny "purist" forces sound shrill in the face of groundswell of rank and file support for the traditional party of the workers' movement.
One of the main demands of the Schulz campaign is, for example, to combat inequality. It will be a simple matter to show and explain how to combat the gulf in incomes and how to redistribute them by intervention in the large firms. By denouncing the SPD now will surely demoralise many potential supporters as they will understand this as a call to give up the fight. The left can try to extend the minimal programme of the SPD and show the need for action against the forces of capital. It will be necessary to try to gather the forces for a new left wing in the SPD and bring them together with solid working class militants in the Linke.
The views above are those of the author.
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