Thursday, May 19, 2016

Trump: Could he be President?

Trump Can this obscene capitalist creature win the Presidency. 
Sean O'Torain.

When this Trump creature, this political and human, obscenity first came on the Presidential scene I said there is no way he could be President. I also said he could not win the Republican nomination. I was not sure on this latter point but I was sure he could not win the Presidency.

I was unsure if he could win the Republican nomination because of the crisis in the Republican Party and how that Party has mobilized the born again Christians, and the racists and the misogynists to its ranks. And also even sections of the white working class and the working class who have seen their living standards fall.

And on top of that, we have the first African American in the White House. At the same time the Democratic Party has hand in hand with the Republican Party carried out the attacks on the working class and so it is seen to offer no alternative either. And of course, and most important of all, but never spoken of, the trade union leadership, with its 14 million members kisses the boots of, and supports the Democratic Party and so there is no working class political alternative, no labor political  alternative.

The result is that half the population does not vote and the rest have only right wing alternatives to choose from or small liberal or left alternatives such as the Green Party. It is against this background that I have become much more conditional on what I earlier said about and thought about Trump. I now do not now think that it is excluded that he could win the Presidency. There are a number of factors.

Clinton and the Democrats have gone so far to the right on economic issues that they offer no  alternative to the working class and the youth. So too on foreign policy issues. Clinton is a candidate of Wall Street, of the military industrial complex, of Silicon Valley and the new high technology capitalist class. Sanders hammers from the "left" on some of these issues and this has an effect. Clinton attracts votes from women, from African American voters, from Latino American voters, from some working class and liberal voters. It is clear that the Republicans are going to go after her on the women's vote. Do a Swift Boat tactic on this, that is, make Bill Clinton's record on women the issue and so undermine the fact that Hilary Clinton is a women and is the candidate.   I still think that it is most likely that Trump cannot win the Presidency. I think he will still struggle to get the women's vote, he will not get the African American or Latino vote, he will not get all the white working class vote and he will not get the younger vote. So over all I do not think he will get the Presidency. But I am no longer as sure as I once was. He might yet win the Presidency.

While being more conditional now on Trump's chances, I still lean in the direction of him not winning the presidency. There are two reasons for this. I feel that enough Americans have enough basic decency not to allow themselves to be represented on the world stage by this creature. But I also lean in this direction for another reason. But here I am tiptoeing my way. I am talking about the role of what I call the the big bourgeois. I know there are many divisions in the big bourgeois. Wall Street, the military industrial complex and the so-called defense industry, the oil and gas sectors, general industry, the heads of the military and so-called intelligence sectors, the newer high technology sector. I also know that while there are these divisions there is also a tendency towards a commonality between them. The two questions I have and which are related to these issues are these. Who does the decisive sections of the big bourgeois want in the White House and can they get the person they want in the White House.

I am convinced they want Clinton in the White House. She has been at the center of US government and US capitalism and US politics and foreign and military affairs now for decades. They trust her. She is also part of the new high technology sector, a leading person in Google, and part of this new high technology sector and its relations with US capitalism as a whole.  I am convinced this is whom the big bourgeois want, or will come to want in the White House.  Even Cheney and one of the Koch brothers recently made complimentary remarks about her.  I believe the decisive sectors of the big bourgeois will work to put Clinton in the White House. But there is this question. Can they succeed in doing so?

There have been a couple of interesting events in the last two days which deserve looking at. They might indicate that the decisive sections of the big bourgeoisie are not sure what they can achieve and what they cannot achieve and so are looking at what they may be faced with. Before doing so let me say that I think that Sanders in spite of the fact that he would be no threat to US capitalism or the big bourgeois will not be President. I do not think he can win the nomination of the Democratic Party. I do not think he will split off and form a new party, nor do I think if the did he could win the presidency. Nor do I think the big bourgeois will come up with some new candidate who is more to their liking than Trump and be able to get him or her elected. So I believe it is most likely the big bourgeois will be back to being stuck with Clinton versus Trump and most likely they will go with Clinton and most likely she will win. But this is most not a sure thing. Back to the two interesting events of the last few days and what are there relevance?

Trump had two extremely important meetings over these last few days. He met with Kissinger and James Baker.   Both are war criminals. But also both are top operators and representatives of the big bourgeois in US politics. Baker was chief of Staff for Reagan, Treasury Secretary who pushed through the Tax Reform Act of 1986, Secretary of State when the cold war was ended, put together the coalition for the first Gulf War and was brought out of retirement to steal the election for G.W. Bush in Florida by way of the High Court. He is no small fish. No dozer.

Kissinger was head of the National Security Agency and Secretary of State under Nixon and Ford. He played a major role in foreign policy from 1969 to 1977 and continues to do so today. He played a major role in ending the cold war, he played a major role in opening relations with China. Both of these players in US capitalist politics are monsters and war criminals. But what is important for this issue which we are now discussing, that is can Trump win the White house, they are heavy hitters in the US capitalist class and in US capitalist politics. What is extremely relevant is that Trump met with both these people in the last few days, that these two people thought it important enough to meet with him. Why did this happen and what was said? The first question we can have an idea of, the second question we can only speculate about.

It is clear that these two people on behalf of the big bourgeois went to see Trump to assess him, to see who he really is. They want to hear him talk to them directly, to get a feel for him. Does he mean what he says? Are his outrageous statements what he believes or are they just rhetoric he will drop and if he gets in the White house will he toe the line. These were very important meetings for Trump. More important than his meeting with Ryan. These were the beginnings of his once over by the big bourgeois. They wanted to begin the process of seeing if they think they can handle him and control him if got into the White House. I would speculate that after these meetings they are still with Clinton, at least for a time, it would only be if and when it would become clear she cannot win then I believe they shift their allegiance. Then it could not be ruled out that they could either sit on their hands and let Trump win or even support him.

So I am now more conditional on Trump's chances. I still think that he will lose but I am not sure. The reactions of the big bourgeois against Trump internationally are factors that will not help him. The British Prime Minister and the mayor of Paris have both criticized him in harsh terms. If in the last analysis Trump really went off the rails and was clearly out of control and heading to win then the big bourgeois have other means they have used in the past to get rid of their own political figures whom they did not want.

We are in for a rocky road. The trade union leaders with their 14 million members are more than any other force responsible for what is developing. They could have mobilized their forces, linked with the youth, broke from the capitalist Democratic Party, set up a Labor/Workers party and all the energy and anger against the system, some of it even now going to Trump, could have been won to building a new mass political party and force that could have taken on and challenged capitalism.

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