|Kerry: only 20% of rebels are bad guys|
As I write, (8am Thursday morning), CNN reports that so far in the US Senate the votes stand at 24 for and 17 against US action and 97 no's and 28 aye's in the House. The problem is that to do nothing is a defeat in that both Putin and Assad and Iran will gain from it. An attack on Syria on the other hand could inflame the region further. The other problem is if the Assad regime is weakened to the point of losing power, what force will replace it?
John Kerry, the billionaire US Secretary of State is wallowing in all the attention and as the WSJ stated, his legacy will be determined by these events. Kerry, along with Nancy Pelosi and other advocates of bombing Syria knows about as much of the opposition in that country as I do. There are 1000 private militias in Syria acting independently with no coordination at all between each other according to CNN, yet Kerry is confident, claiming that 80% of the rebels are good guys and 20% are bad or what George W. Bush would call "evildoers". A very scientific study I'm sure. Once again, Americans are learning geography and where other countries are on this planet when their government bombs them.
The New York Times published a video today, smuggled out by a disenchanted Syrian rebel apparently. The video shows rebel forces executing Syrian soldiers. There have been all sorts of savage attacks and kidnapping by various groups including an attack on a Christian community yesterday; minorities have lived in relative security under the Assad regime and many in these communities fear a Sunni government and the Islamic fanatics among the rebel forces.
Rep King, a Republican from NY who favors intervention saying that they have no choice as it would "weaken" America, admitted that he can't guarantee bombing Syria will work but if "we don't" things will really be bad. US capitalism's choices are bad and worse than bad.
Obama might decide to bomb Syria even if Congress votes against it. It remains to be seen what Russia will do as both Russia and the US have increased military presence in the region, Russia has a lot of investment in Syria. Russia, the UK, Germany and China as well as Iran are all opposed to intervention. Both Iran and Iraq, with Shia majorities are also significant players in this dangerous game.
Increased regional and sectarian violence and wider regional wars are a likely outcome of a US attack and we could even see a resurgence of the Arab spring directed against US intervention in the region.
One thing certain is that behind it all is the US need to weaken Iran and its influence. Kerry has called Assad a thug and murderer yet in Bahrain, the US has supported thugs and murderers in the form of the absolute monarchy that rules that Island. 30,00 US troops sat idly by as government forces slaughtered peaceful protesters and imprisoned doctors that tended the wounded
The only thing certain is that the crisis in the Middle East cannot be resolved by US intervention only intensified by it. The problem is that the choices are limited. US, capitalism drained by its never-ending war on terror which is in actuality a war fought in the interests of US corporations, will be drained even further. The US working class will have to make more sacrifices for these predatory adventures and the willingness to do so will end at some point. We will see the limits of patience among US workers breached at some point here.
Meanwhile, the crisis of global capitalism will continue and the resistance to austerity and permanent war will broaden. Despite general strikes and massive protests against austerity in Europe and brutal working conditions from Bangladesh to South Africa, Cambodia to Brazil, the leadership of the traditional organizations and political parties of the working class have cooperated with the austerity agenda of the bankers and global capital. It is the failure of this, subjective factor, the leadership of the working class internationally, to act and provide an alternative to capitalism, that is prolonging the suffering and creating a vacuum which right wing fascist elements can fill.
Capitalism cannot be fixed. Its representatives cannot solve any global crises, whether regional wars, civil conflict like Syria's, horrendous working conditions in the factories of the third world, or the environmental catastrophe that threatens to end life as we know it. Already, some areas of the world are unfit for human habitation.
The present meeting in St Petersburg of the leaders of global capitalism is a gathering of thieves. They are thrown in to conflict, deception and treachery by forces beyond their control, as representatives of competing nation states based on the free market yet within an increasingly integrated world economy.
The reality is, US capitalism, with its vast resources and massive intelligence operations has no idea what will result from an intervention in Syria, especially if boots aren't put on the ground, something that could backfire terribly as Americans are fairly quiet about wars abroad as long as not many of us die in the process. So those of us on the outside looking in can only speculate with one exception: Capitalism cannot solve this crisis making the struggle for democratic socialist economies, a world federation of democratic socialist states, the most pressing and only real permanent solution to global conflict and environmental catastrophe.