German regional elections

The figures for the Land elections in Mecklenburg Vorpommern are more or less in now so we can start to put together a picture of how voters are feeling.

The main change has been for the SPD to gain over 5% and now has over 37% at the expense of the CDU who lost the same percentage and is now on 23%. The SPD can form the next regional government.

The Linke gathered over 18%.
And the Greens picked up 8%
The neonazi NPD received 6% and gains a fraction in the parliament
again,

The rightwing conservative FDP was almost destroyed, lost all its seats and only 2.7% of voters supported them

For the past four years there has been a red/black (SPD/CDU) coalition which has been moderately popular on jobs and defending regional interests. But we can see from the low turnout that large numbers of voters are disillusioned with most of the parties.

Turnout in the general election in 2009 was 63%, but for the Land elections this fell to 51%. So any percentages should take this into account. If we look at the actual number of votes cast in 2009 and
this year, we see the following (rounded):

SPD had 237,000 but got 161000 this time
CDU had 301,000 now has 180,000
Linke had 255,000 now has 125,000
FDP had 61,000 now has 20,000
NPD had 29,000 now has 39,000

This is not to say of course that voters have necessarily changed their minds but it does show the lack of commitment to a particular party.

The SPD fought the election on demands for a minimum wage, combatting the exodus of young unemployed to the west and for a unified secondary school system for longer. These demands were echoed precisely by the Linke. and opposed by the CDU. It should therefore be clear to any observer that the victorious SPD which now has a free choice of coalition partner between the old conservative CDU and the leftwing Linke that a red-red coalition will deliver on these promises, whereas a new red/black coalition would not. The Linke is making forceful overtures to the SPD saying "we in the Linke can help you put the SPD programme into practice". Any possible rift inside the Linke could see a reunification of the Linke in the east with the SPD, leaving the unpopular Linke groups in the western Länder isolated from the electoral strength of the PDS in the eastern old DDR Länder.

A red-red coalition on a programme of minimal reforms is looking increasingly likely. This would also weaken the Berlin government which has already lost its majority support in the population. The rightwing FDP conservatives who are in coalition with Merkel in Berlin have suffered disaster in the past year, slipping from 14 to 4% support; their mainly younger leaders typifiy the hardnosed yuppy culture of Thatcherism and have now paid the price for their nasty image. The CDU is splitting into more defined factions, for and against asssisting the Euro. Only the SPD and the Greens maintain an appearance of unity. A new rightwing party unifying the national liberals and nationalistic, anti-migrant party should not be ruled out in the next year or so. The ruling class have no use for the NPD thugs; they would prefer Italian style neofascists with whom they could rule in coalition.

The Linke was not able to mobilise its recent electoral strength withover 100,000 of its voters abstaining on Sunday. The neonazis on the other hand not only maintained their vote but actually increased itvis-a-vi the General Election in 2009. Their potential support amongst working class voters and particularly the youth is worrying. A survey looking at sympathy for the NPD found these results:
Overall 6%

Amongst workers 13%
Amongst unemployed 18%
Amongst first time voters 15%
Amongst male First time voters 17%

This is the task for the left - to run convincing campaigns for jobs and defending social services in the Land, draining the swamp in which the NPD can breed.

 Here are the actual numbers:

Results Land parliament 2011
Percentages
SPD 35.7%, +5.5%
CDU 23.1% -5.7%
Linke 18.4% +1.6%
FDP 2.7% -6.8%
NPD 6% -1-3%
Greens 8.4% +5%

Seats
SPD 28
CDU 18
Linke 14
NPD 5
Greens 6

For comparison
General Election 2009
Numbers of votes and percentages
Turnout 63%

SPD    161414    18.6%
CDU 301823    34.9%
Linke 255411    29.5%
FDP 61469    7.1%
Greens 46826    5.4%
NPD 29801    3.4%

Land parliament 2011
Turnout 51.4%

SPD    237653    35.5%
CDU 180536    26.9%
Linke 125468    18,6%
FDP 20507 3.1%
NPD 39132 5.8%
Greens 54514    8.1%