Looking forward to getting more information from wikileaks in 2011. Open all the books. Defend Bradley Manning. Defend wikileaks.
It is not easy to say what the prospects of capitalism for 2011 might be. We know the general processes but the timing is more difficult. Richard Mellor in his recent post spoke of the giant of US capitalism increasingly in crisis and increasingly challenged and how this would make for very dangerous and unpredictable developments. This is very true and very important. When British capitalism lost its world dominance there was a world war and an economic slump. The big powers do not let go without a fight. US capitalism will not allow itself to be replaced as the number one capitalist power by China without a fight. This does not mean that a world war is inevitable, the nuclear arsenals frighten all of them, but it does mean that severe instability and conflict are on the cards. For example if there is an attack on Iran with tactical nuclear weapons this would mean that the Middle East would explode and that the world would go into an economic free fall as an oil crisis would develop.
Then there is the coming next phase of the economic crisis. The next shoe has still to fall. They are trying to prop up the Euro. They are trying to get the US to get out of their catastrophe of debt. They are trying to get China to develop its home market without allowing inflation to get out of control. They are trying to develop manageable relations between the big powers, the US, China, Russia, Europe. And they are trying to do all this when the working class and youth are fighting on the streets to maintain their living standards in the face of the vicious offensive of capitalism. The new and coming year is going to be an unpredictable one. All that gives the capitalist class some room for maneuver is that the leaders of the mass workers organizations as so committed to capitalism and so passive in front of the capitalist offensive.
For US workers one definite prospect lies ahead. Whether this comes in 2011 or later cannot be predicted. But come it will. This is the move by US capitalism to put the US working class on rations. We see the attacks on private sector workers are now being followed up with the attacks on public sector workers and on youth in the education system. The big picture is this. US capitalism because it emerged unscathed from the wars of the past century, because it dominated the world and could fill its coffers with the surplus loot of the world, was able to give enough to the majority of its own working class to keep them in a depoliticized and relatively passive position. The exceptions were the economic crisis of the 1930's, the great black revolt and the women's revolt. As US capitalism increasingly puts the US working class on rations things will change. Working class consciousness will change. The US working class will return to its old traditions of struggle. We will see the rise of a mobilized and militant US working class. Hopefully this will be this coming year. But if it is not then it will be soon. This is a certainty.
Within this process we have the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and Pakistan and increasingly in the Yemen. US capitalism is bogged down in these wars. Any serious reading of the reports on Afghanistan show US capitalism cannot win. Not only that but it is destabilizing Pakistan which is a nuclear state. And now they are trying to tell us that Iraq is all set for stability and the 50,000 US troops are going to be out in 2011. They are living in a dream world. It took them months to get an Iraqi government and many posts are still not filled. The North is riven by disagreements between the Kurds, the Arabs and Turkmen people. The Shiites and Sunnis are in conflict. 2011 will end with US troops still in Iraq, even more trapped in Afghanistan and even more hated and opposed in Pakistan. The US capitalist class are riding towards the edge of the precipice.
Then there are the other great developments. Their dirty secrets are coming out. Wikileaks is letting everybody with an email connection see their dirty deeds. This is having a big effect. But the most important possibility is this. To what extent will this information get in amongst the US military? It is already there as is shown by the case of Bradley Manning. If it is the case that he is the source of the information then US soldiers are already watching what is going on and thinking about what they are doing. The last thing US capitalism wants is a thinking knowledgeable soldier. This it appears is what they are already in the process of getting. A revolt in the US military in its wars and occupations would open up a whole new process of struggle and not only abroad but with their familes and themselves in the US. This is already happening in small scale. Support for Bradley Manning and an end to the wars and occupations is a priority. Linking this to the squandering of hundreds of billions of dollars on wars while living standards are being cut at home is the way to take this up. 2011 could be the year of the change in US working class consciousness. We ope so. But if not the changes below the surface will be continuing and these will explode to the surface in the near future. We should learn the lessons from our past and be ready.
Sean.
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