British Politics: Brexit Talks Extended: General Election in December.

Protesting the Parliament shutdown August 2019

Richard Evans
member of Birmingham Selly Oak Labour Party

The general election starting gun has been fired. Parliament is passing a law for an election on 12th December. 

The Brexit deadline has been missed and Boris Johnson has accepted the EU's offer of a further extension until 31st January rather than "die in a ditch", as he had promised. There was no majority in the House of Commons to allow a 'no deal' Brexit and MPs had taken control of procedure to mandate Johnson, by law, to seek an extension from the EU if a deal had not been accepted by 19th October. Despite his bluster, Johnson finally folded and childishly sent an unsigned letter to Europe, asking for the extension.

The Tory right wing had been demanding the hardest of a 'no deal' Brexit and had brought down Theresa May as Prime Minister,  when her deal wasn't hard enough. Johnson,  after the Commons had prevented a no deal, then rapidly changed tack and negotiated a deal to try to beat the deadline of a Halloween exit that he had been promising all summer. His deal effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market and customs union; meaning that there would be custom checks on goods  between Great Britain and NI. His revised deal also removed continuing EU worker and consumer rights from the legally binding section of the agreement. Government documents leaked to the Financial Times, show that the Tories are planning to undercut the EU by loosening worker and consumer protection. 

The bill to approve Johnson's deal was passed with a majority of 30 (including 19 Labour MPs ) but the government lost the vote on their timetabling motion to rush the legislation through in 3 days. By doing this, it prevented Johnson from meeting his October 31st deadline and would have opened up the bill to being amended to reinsert worker and consumer rights and to maintain a customs union with the EU. A confirmatory referendum may also have been added.

The country is split on Brexit, with polls for over a year showing consistently a small Remain lead. But this is also largely a split along  left/right lines :with the right favouring a 'no deal' or a hard Brexit and the left, favouring remain or a very soft Brexit. 

In the 2017 election, the two main parties won 82% of the vote as a result of the polarisation over Brexit, with Brexiteers going to the Tories and Remainers to Labour. Now these coalitions have been shattered. The Brexit vote is split between Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and the Tories; and the Remain vote is split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The tracking polls have shown that as the Liberal vote increases, the Labour vote decreases by an equivalent amount; the same mirroring is taking place between  the Tories and Brexit Party. 

The BBC 's tracker on 25th October puts Labour on 24%;Lib Dems 18%;Tories 36%;Brexit Party 11%. The Remain vote is more badly split because of the blunders by the Labour leadership, which has consistently lagged behind the mood of its members and voters; and has been too slow to move towards a clear Remain and Reform position. Fatally allowing the Lib Dems to re-establish themselves in May's EU elections, when Labour refused to put forward a second referendum position. Johnson now believes that he can win a majority by having a snap election. Even on 36%, it would be possible to win a working majority if the rest of the vote remained   split. 

Johnson was refused an election three times because he was unable to secure the two thirds support in the Commons needed under the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Now, the December 12th election has been called because Parliament has voted for a law to circumvent the Fixed Term Parliament Act. It's the first December general election since 1923 (when a minority Labour government was returned after a Tory Prime Minister thought he would win).

In Scotland, both main UK parties will probably lose seats to the Scottish National Party. The Lib Dems will expect to make gains in England. These will mainly be Tory seats but the result of the election will probably hinge on how many previously Labour votes they take in Labour /Conservative marginals. If there is widespread tactical voting, it is possible that the Tories could go down to a heavy defeat. At the moment this could be difficult as the Labour leadership is likely to adopt a confusing position of negotiating a Labour Brexit and then putting it to a referendum with remain as an option but not to say which way it will recommend. 

There is a possibility of a modern day  'coupon election '. In the 1918 election, the Lloyd-George government, which had been a coalition from MPs of different parties, gave letters  (coupons) of endorsement to those MPs who had supported it. It is possible that the Remain campaigns will give the pro-EU candidates with the best chance of winning, a 'coupon', whether they are Labour, Liberal, SNP, Plaid Cymru or Green. 

The Labour manifesto will be more radical than that of 2017 with re-nationalisation of the utilities; a large increase in the minimum wage; a reduction in working hours; enactment of pro-trade union laws; a green new deal on climate change producing jobs in de-industrialised areas. It could even include a commitment to providing universal basic services. 

The volatility of the electorate is higher than ever and is likely to move during the election. Campaigning will be difficult with the dark nights of winter - parts of Scotland are dark by 3.30pm. There is also a prospect of violence against canvassers or candidates. Brexit is going to be the number one issue by far. But if Labour wins, it could transform British politics in the same way that the 1945 Labour government did. If the Tories win a majority, it will be the most right wing government since the second world war, looking to complete, what they see as the Thatcher revolution.