Opinion. China-Taiwan: How the Relationship Will Be Reconciled

China-Taiwan: How the Relationship Will Be Reconciled 

 

Navdeep Singh

11-29-25

 

No one in Fujian is worried about missiles being fired from across the straits. Why? Because 25% of passport holding men in Taiwan work in Fujian and the mainland, often marrying into Fujian families. Why not? They are all ethnically Han Chinese, they eat the same foods, they speak the same language, they have the same cultural traditions. Imagine that. There is little to no personal animosities between the Han Chinese who live in the Republic of China and the Han Chinese who live in the People’s Republic of China. 

 

Let’s talk a bit about Min-Tai relations, the historical interactions between Han Chinese in Fujian province and Taiwan province. As noted: “Taiwan residents are mostly descendants of immigrants from mainland China, of which the southern Fujian ethnic group is the main group, accounting for 73.5% of Taiwan's total population. In terms of culture, language, religion, and customs, Fujian and Taiwan also share similarities”. Fujian province is about 3-4 times larger than Taiwan province, (121k square km to 36 K square km) and contains about double the population. (41 million people to 23 million people). 

 

People forget that the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China, formed by the KMT, the Kuomintang, which was the SOLE ruling party in all of China from 1927-1949 and the sole ruling party in Taiwan from 1949-1987. The. Republic of China basically existed under conditions of martial law for the first 38 years of its existence. 

 

How is it going to play out, the relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China ? The Hong Kong-Macao solutions! Duhh! Hong Kong could have been taken over the PRC in 1949–the mainland controls its food and water. But they opted for the long term negotiated solution, with the handover happening 48 years after the formation of the PRC, in 1997, followed by 50 years of “One Country, Two Systems”, which will end in 2046. 

 

Expect the “One Country Two Systems” solution in Taiwan. There are now rumblings that the DPP will be crushed in the next round of national elections, possibly electorally wiped out. Who will be back in power, again? The KMT. If it’s an overwhelming victory, they can re-write the constitution to enact a solution along the lines of (1) 50 years of same status-China and Taiwan are effectively independent entities; (2) 50 years of “One Country, Two Systems”, where Taiwan keeps it’s own system, except for its armed forces. 

 

That’s going to happen. It’s fully consistent with Chinese history. What is the overarching factor in Chinese history? Emphasis on the long view of history, the Big Picture.