Brexit: British Tories in Severe Crisis.

From Richard Evans

Member Birmingham Selly Oak CLP

We are witnessing extraordinary events unfolding in the UK; the unravelling at the seams of the British Conservative Party. The most successful party in British history. One, which was founded on the Burkean principle of slow change and against radicalism ; and which had learnt the lesson in the mid-nineteenth century of never splitting. Now, over the question of Brexit have transformed themselves into a narrow right wing English nationalist party. Boris Johnson, in a move that would have sent Burke spinning in his grave, has staked everything on a strategy of calling a general election to force through a hard neo-liberal Brexit, expelling those Tory MPs who are opposed. He is gambling that he could withstand the loss of seats in Scotland and metropolitan England by winning a populist campaign in the ex-industrial small towns of 'rust-belt' England. 

This week, as Parliament reconvened after the summer recess, one Tory MP theatrically crossed the floor of the House of Commons as Johnson was speaking; 22 further Tory MPs, including two former Chancellors, voted against the Prime Minister and were summarily expelled from the Tory Party; and then, Jo Johnson, the PM's brother, resigned as a minister and will not contest the next election because he was "torn between the national interest and famial loyalty". 

The stakes couldn't be higher in the coming election. A Johnson victory would mean a hard neo-liberal Brexit and Britain being drawn into the vassalage of a Trumpian United States with workers' and consumer' rights being shredded by a cabinet that is further to the right than any of Thatcher's. A victory for Labour would bring a left wing Corbyn government. 

The crisis in the Tories has been coming since the referendum. Only the hardest of Brexits will satisfy the reactionary membership of the Tory party which selects the Prime Minister. Theresa May was unable to get a Brexit deal through Parliament, blocked by her own right wing, who favour crashing out of the EU rather than seeking a negotiated exit with a transitional period. Johnson took over as PM, on the vote of Tory party members by promising to leave the EU on 31st October, deal or (more likely) no-deal.. The economic shock of crashing out, that would have been considered lunacy a couple of years ago, has now become the favoured policy of the Tory government. 

Johnson's tactic was to rundown the clock by holding phoney negotiations with the EU by setting prior conditions which were impossible to meet, even suggesting that Ireland re-enter the UK trading block to prevent a hard border. When the charade would have finished at the European Council on 17th October, it would have been too late for MPs to block a no-deal Brexit and Britain would automatically crash out as the Article 50 deadline expired. To achieve this goal, the government was prepared to prorogue (suspend) Parliament for 5 weeks to prevent MPs from meeting. 

When Parliament returned this week, opposition MPs with Tory rebels seized hold of the Parliamentary agenda (under House of Commons rules, the government normally controls the business of Parliament) to pass a law instructing the government to apply for an extension to Article 50 if no deal has been reached by 19th October.. Johnson, on being defeated, then called for a general election ; but because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, it is no longer in the gift of the PM to automatically call an election, as two thirds of MPs must agree. Labour abstained and won't agree to an election until no-deal has been legally ruled out. Johnson has become the first Prime Minister in history to lose his first three votes in Parliament. 

The election will take place. The only question is the date - before or after the end of October and an Article 50 extension (there is still a small chance of a deal and Brexit on 31st October if the government pulls back from its position or a new government takes its place - but there would still be an election sooner rather than later). Labour will need to fight the election on a strong remain platform (probably for a second referendum) linked to ending austerity and reversing privatisation. There will probably be large scale tactical voting between Labour and the Liberal-Democrats as voters look to defeat the Tories. The Scottish National Party will probably take seats from both Labour and the Tories. It promises to be the most important election since 1979 and the most brutal since the war.